Hurricanes and Consumers: The Power of Granularity in Understanding Consumer Behavior
Guest post by:
Ahmad Zia Wahdat
Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics
Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability
In the last six years, the United States has endured a series of devastating blows from the relentless force of category 4 and 5 hurricanes. These catastrophic storms, including Harvey, Irma, Maria, Michael, Laura, Ida, and the most recent one, Ian, have left a trail of destruction, with each causing damages exceeding a staggering $1 billion. The impact of hurricanes on consumers cannot be understated. In a world grappling with the consequences of climate change, we have witnessed a disturbing rise in both the frequency and intensity of these tempestuous phenomena. Experts warn that this alarming trend is set to continue, particularly in the North Atlantic region.[i] As the threat of hurricanes looms, consumers are prompted to take action, stockpiling groceries in anticipation of potential power outages and disruptions in the supply chain. Although we have substantial knowledge about the consequences of previous hurricanes, we are still trying to fully capture the impact of Hurricane Ian on households and the Florida economy. This blog piece seeks to shed light on consumer card spending behavior around Hurricane Ian, a formidable force that ranks as the third most costly Atlantic hurricane since 1980, causing a staggering $113 billion in damages[ii] and tragically claiming 149 lives.[iii] In fact, Hurricane Ian has been the costliest natural disaster even when compared to other natural disasters around the world in 2022 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Costs of 2022 climate-related disasters. Source: Christian Aid.[iv]
Consumer spending behavior around Hurricane Ian in Florida counties
Usually the focus of various hurricane-specific analyses is to evaluate food and water shopping behavior, given the availability of scanner datasets like Nielsen or IRI. However, consumers are equally savvy in their spending at other spend categories like travel, entertainment, or clothing. Without considering consumer spend in various spend categories, we are probably not getting a full picture of consumer purchase behavior around extreme events like hurricanes.
The use of granular, near-real-time transaction datasets, such as Facteus card spending, is necessary for depicting consumer behavior analysis around hurricanes. Observations in Facteus data represent debit and credit card transactions, sourced directly from card-issuing banks, with a variety of payment methods (Credit, Debit, Alternative Debit, Health, and Payroll). For this blog piece, I will show consumer card spend in the Auto Parts and Services category, which is probably a category that we never pay much attention to on a daily basis anyway.
What follows is a dive into spending data and behavior around Hurricane Ian, where I divide spending into three phases, pre-hurricane spend, hurricane spend, and post-hurricane spend. If we look at Figure 2, which shows the path of Hurricane Ian and total precipitation, understanding spending by three phases is important. For instance, the exact day of Hurricane Ian’s first advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was 23 September, 2022. Hurricane Ian landed in Florida on the 28th of September, so there are five days between the first advisory and Ian’s landing, where ignoring consumer behavior during the pre-hurricane phase is unwisely. Hurricane Ian exited Florida on 30 September which means spending could be down for two hurricane days. The post-hurricane days are relevant for understanding consumer spending for recovery.
Figure 2. Total Precipitation around Hurricane Ian, Florida (Sep. 27-30, 2022). Source: NCEI, NOAA.
For each day, I show percent change in consumer card spending in a county relative to its average daily spending in August 2022. You may think of the following as a film reel of consumer spend behavior for Auto Parts and Services.
Pre-Hurricane Ian Spending
As the government advisory for Hurricane Ian hit the airwaves on September 23, Floridians braced themselves for the impending storm. An extraordinary surge in spending swept through the state, with card transactions in some red-highlighted counties skyrocketing by an astounding 1,253% on September 23. It was clear that Floridians were preparing for the worst, stocking up on auto parts to face the hurricane head-on.
Meanwhile, other counties showed reduced spending compared to average daily spending of August 2022, while some had no transactions at all (hence the blank spots in the map). The spending frenzy continued on September 24, only to quiet down on September 25. However, as the hurricane approached, spending picked up again on September 26 and 27. Notably, the counties directly in the storm's path began stockpiling auto parts and services on September 27, when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also issued an evacuation order for 12 counties.[v]
Floridians' determination to weather the storm was evident in their actions, probably using spending as a way of resilience. Of course, without a functional vehicle, Floridians or anyone else would not have been able to move from point A to B. The pre-hurricane spending makes it clear that government advisories are crucial for helping consumers to plan ahead of the storm. But spending frenzy also means that some vulnerable consumers with low-income might not be able to get the goods and services they need.
Figure 3. Pre-Hurricane Ian Percent Spend Change (Auto Parts/Services) in Florida (Sep. 23-27, 2022). Source: Author’s calculations with Facteus data.
Spending during Hurricane Ian
When Hurricane Ian made landfall on September 28 and 29, spending on auto parts and services experienced a significant and drastic decline. A multitude of counties within the storm's path revealed a complete absence of transactions during this critical period. This absence of commercial activity is understandable, as the focus shifted towards ensuring personal safety and addressing the immediate challenges posed by the storm.
The silence in spending serves as a stark reminder of the immense impact hurricanes have on daily life and highlights the resilience of individuals as they prioritize their well-being. These findings underscore the disruptive nature of hurricanes and emphasize the need to consider the broader social and economic implications beyond the immediate aftermath of such extreme weather events.
Figure 4. Hurricane Ian Percent Spend Change (Auto Parts/Services) in Florida (Sep. 28-29, 2022). Source: Author’s calculations with Facteus data.
Post-Hurricane Ian Spending
As the storm subsides, a significant increase in spending emerges on September 30, followed by sustained high levels of expenditure on October 1. Notably, counties highlighted in dark-red experience an extraordinary surge, with spending soaring by up to 1,407%. This surge reflects the determination of Floridians to restore their vehicles and resume normalcy after the hurricane's disruptions.
As October 2 arrives, attention shifts to central counties affected by flooding. In these areas, spending on auto parts and services remains notably high. With Hurricane Ian no longer posing an immediate threat, residents in flooded counties try to address vehicle damages and regain mobility. This continued spending showcases the resilience and resourcefulness of Floridians as they navigate the post-hurricane recovery phase, and to restore their everyday lives.
Figure 5. Post-Hurricane Ian Percent Spend Change (Auto Parts/Services) in Florida (Sep. 30-Oct 2, 2022). Source: Author’s calculations with Facteus data.
Time for Action
The staggering cost of hurricane damage, exemplified by the $130 billion associated with Hurricane Ian, extends beyond financial implications. Vulnerable groups like low-income households and the elderly bear the brunt of extreme weather events. Our research, currently under review, highlights the doubling of food spending before Hurricane Ian, exposing the strain on supply chains and household budgets.[vi]
For policymakers and the private sector, a crucial question arises: How can we build resilient cities and systems that ensure residents' safety, access to necessities, and swift recovery after disasters?
Instilling consumer confidence in resource availability during extreme conditions can alleviate panic-driven stockpiling, while educational programs based on behavioral science can empower consumers to prioritize essential spending even before a hurricane hits. To navigate the challenges ahead, it is imperative to proactively enhance preparedness. By addressing supply chain vulnerabilities, providing assurance of resource availability, and promoting consumer well-being through behavioral education, we can forge a resilient future.
Disclaimer: I thank Facteus for allowing me to work with their granular card spending data. All errors are mine.
[i] Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436(7051), 686-688.
[ii] Hurricane Ian ranks as the costliest natural disaster in USA during 2022. Link: http://bitly.ws/JSog
[iii] The death toll from Hurricane Ian is up to 149. Link: https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/weather/2023-02-04/ian-death-toll-up-to-149
[iv] Counting the cost 2022, A year of climate breakdown. Christian Aid. December 2022. Link: https://www.christianaid.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-12/counting-the-cost-2022.pdf
[v] https://abcnews.go.com/US/officials-people-evacuate-hurricane-ian/story?id=90931063
[vi] Wahdat, Ahmad Zia and Jayson Lusk, “Extreme Weather Events and Consumers’ Dynamic Food Shopping Behavior”, Working Paper, 2023.