Dear Reader,

Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending August 31, 2024. As we transition from summer to fall, we're observing some significant shifts in spending patterns across various retail categories.

Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail shopping trends and consumer spending behaviors.

The latest highlights are featured below.

General Retail Spending

Reversing the upticks in general retail spending from the beginning of August, the end of the month ushered in declines for big box and big-name retailers, with Amazon, Target, and Temu all seeing drops in week-over-week (WoW) spend growth and average ticket growth. In fact, Target was associated with the largest declines in WoW spend growth, as well as average ticket growth, with 3.1% and 7.3%, respectively.

Notably, Walmart was the only retailer in this category to experience increases in WoW spend growth and average ticket growth, with ~0.6% and ~0.8% upticks in these areas, respectively.

The combination of those dips and upticks resulted in the following for general retail spending last week:

• Weekly spend growth: -2.5%

• Average ticket growth: -0.3%

These trends may be crucial for all retailers roughly a month out from Amazon’s Big Deal Days in 2024, which are running on Oct. 8th and 9th.

Fast Fashion Spending

Somewhat sustaining the trends in early August, the past week brought some increases in fast fashion spending with:

• Weekly spend growth: 0.6%

• Average ticket growth: 1.5%

Crucially, all brands experienced declines in WoW spend growth, with SHEIN dipping less (6.6%) while Uniqlo was at the other end of the spectrum with the largest declines of 25.2%. With average ticket growth, however, all but one brand experienced declines, with Zara coming out ahead to see a 4.2% increase in average ticket growth over the last week.

TikTok Shop Spending

Dropping substantially last week, TikTok Shop spending was down across the board, with:

• Weekly spend growth: -16.5%

• Average ticket growth: -15.0%

Notably, TikTok Shop spending has been zigzagging over the last couple of months, with greater declines than upticks when looking at the retail transaction data with a birds-eye view.

Other Retail Categories

Looking at other retailers, there was a mix of upticks and backslides in consumer spending, with fast food and discount stores experiencing dips while wholesale clubs, grocery, and home improvement spending all increased:

• Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -2.0%

• Grocery spend growth: 3.0%

• Wholesale Club spend growth: 4.9%

• Discount Store spend growth: -1.6%

• Hardware & Home Supply spend growth: 3.5%

Key Takeaways & Comparisons

By contextualizing the latest transaction data with the retail market intelligence from prior weeks, we can start to uncover some fascinating insights and key trends related to consumer spending and shopping across several areas:

1. General Retail: The -2.5% decline suggests a continued slowdown in overall retail spending as we exit the summer season.
   

2. Fast Fashion: Despite the slight positive growth of 0.6%, there's a mixed picture with some major retailers showing significant declines in both average ticket size and weekly spend.
   

3. TikTok Shop: A sharp decline of -16.5% indicates a significant pullback in spending on this platform, possibly as the novelty wears off or as consumers shift to other channels.
   

4. Grocery and Wholesale Club: Both categories show strong positive growth (3.0% and 4.9% respectively), which could indicate a shift towards at-home consumption and bulk buying as summer ends.
   

5. Hardware & Home Supply: The 3.5% growth might suggest consumers are focusing on home improvement projects as they spend more time indoors.
   

6. Fast Food & Restaurant: The -2.0% decline could reflect reduced leisure spending as summer vacations end and families prepare for the school year.

These trends paint a picture of changing consumer priorities as we move into fall. The growth in grocery, wholesale club, and home improvement spending, coupled with declines in general retail and fast food, suggests a shift towards home-centric activities and budget-conscious behavior.

The significant decline in TikTok Shop spending is particularly noteworthy and bears watching in the coming weeks to see if this is a temporary dip or a longer-term trend.

As we look ahead to September, we'll be monitoring for:

1. Early signs of holiday shopping patterns

2. How economic factors might influence consumer spending across various categories.

Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.

If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.

Best regards,

The Facteus Team

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