Dear Reader,

Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending August 3, 2024. This week's data is particularly interesting as it reflects spending patterns two weeks after Amazon Prime Day 2024 and potentially captures the growing impact of back-to-school shopping in some regions. Let's dive into the numbers and compare them with previous weeks.

The latest highlights are featured below.

General Retail Spending

Somewhat recovering from last week’s declines, general retail spending increased with a couple of big-name retailers over the past week, including Walmart and Target. In fact, while the average ticket growth at Walmart was nearly 3% last week, week-over-week (WoW) spend growth was 4%. Target fared even better, with average ticket growth up nearly 4% while WoW spend growth increased by close to 7%.

Amazon and Temu, on the hand, experienced declines, resulting in the following for general retail spending last week:

• Weekly spend growth: -3.7%

• Average ticket growth: 1.8%

Fast Fashion Spending

For the second consecutive week, fast fashion and apparel spending has increased, with:

• Weekly spend growth: 2.8%

• Average ticket growth: 0.1%

Remarkably, all brands experienced WoW spend growth, ranging from 0.1% (Uniqlo) to nearly 15% (H&M). In terms of average ticket growth (ATG), however, only Zara and H&M saw increases here, with the ATG up 8.4% at Zara and 6% at H%. In contrast, the average ticket growth at both SHEIN and Uniqlo dropped by roughly 2%.

TikTok Shop Spending

Slighly recovering from two consecutive weeks of declines, TikTok Shop spending increased in terms the average ticket while WoW spending declined:

• Weekly spend growth: -1.9%

• Average ticket growth: 3.3%

Notably, WoW spending declines are not as dramatic as they were last week (2.7%) or the week before (12.5%). This could indicate a positive shift despite the 3-week declines in WoW spend.

Other Retail Categories

Pivoting to other retailers, there was near-across-the-board growth in consumer spending last week. Specifically, average ticket growth surged for all “other” retail categories tracked, including fast food, grocery, wholesale clubs, discount stores, and home improvement. In terms of WoW spend growth, all categories but home improvement and fast food (and restaurants) had upticks over the previous week:

• Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -1.5%

• Grocery spend growth: 2.3%

• Wholesale Club spend growth: 6.1%

• Discount Store spend growth: 4.3%

• Hardware & Home Supply spend growth: -1.3%

Crucially, the WoW spending drops here were less than 2%.

Key Takeaways & Comparisons

Analyzing the latest retail transaction data can start to highlight some fascinating insights and important trends related to consumer spending and shopping across several areas:

1. General Retail: Improved to -3.7% growth from last week's -24.1%, suggesting a recovery from the post-Prime Day slump. The positive average ticket growth indicates larger purchases, possibly related to back-to-school shopping. General Retail's improvement, while still negative, indicates a normalization of spending patterns post-Prime Day. The positive growth in average ticket size suggests that while fewer transactions are occurring, those that do are for larger amounts.

2. Fast Fashion: Continued positive growth at 2.8%, up from last week's 0.9%. This strengthens the case for back-to-school shopping impact.

3. TikTok Shop: Slight improvement to -1.9% from last week's -2.7%, with a notable increase in average ticket size. TikTok Shop's gradual improvement and increasing average ticket size suggest that it may be finding its footing after the Prime Day disruption. It will be interesting to see if it can return to positive growth in the coming weeks.

4. Wholesale Club and Discount Store: Strong positive growth at 6.1% and 4.3% respectively, a significant improvement from last week. This could indicate bulk purchases for back-to-school supplies and clothing. The strong performance of Wholesale Clubs and Discount Stores is particularly noteworthy, potentially reflecting a consumer preference for value as they prepare for the school year. This could be a trend to watch in the coming weeks.

5. Grocery: Positive growth at 2.3%, up from 0% last week, possibly reflecting increased food shopping for school lunches and snacks.

The data this week strongly suggests the growing impact of back-to-school shopping, particularly evident in the Fast Fashion, Wholesale Club, and Discount Store categories. The increase in average ticket sizes across several categories also supports this interpretation, as families often make larger purchases for the new school year.

As we move further into August, we expect the back-to-school shopping trend to intensify, potentially driving growth across multiple retail categories. We'll be closely monitoring these trends and their impact on consumer spending patterns.

If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.

Best regards,

The Facteus Team

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