Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Jan. 18, 2025)
Dear Reader,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending January 18, 2025. This week's data shows a notable rebound across multiple retail categories, with some particularly interesting developments in the digital commerce space.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
Bouncing back after three weeks of substantial negative growth, general retail spending had nearly across-the-board positive growth this week, with all brands in the green for average ticket growth (ATG) and growth in weekly spend growth (WSG) this week, except for one.
In particular, the only general retail brand with ATG and WSG declines this week was TEMU, with average ticket growth down 0.4% while weekly spend growth dropped by 3.2%.
All other general retailer brands came out ahead this week, with Amazon, Target, and Walmart seeing ATG rise by 0.3%, 0.5%, and 1.7%, respectively. Complementing that positive growth, those three brands also had gains in weekly spend growth, with WSG up 4.1% for Amazon, 5.4% for Walmart, and 5.5% for Target.
Putting that data together, here’s how general retail spending changed this week when compared to the previous 7-day period:
Weekly spend growth: 4.6%
Average ticket growth: 0.8%
Fast Fashion Spending
Similar to general retail spending, fast fashion spending most experienced positive growth this week, with Uniqlo and H&M coming out as clear “winners” while SHEIN had some zigzagging and Zara fell behind.
Specifically, Uniqlo and H&M saw positive ATG this week of 1.3% and 0.3%, respectively, while SHEIN and Zara had average ticket growth declines of 1.8% and 10.6%, respectively.
In terms of weekly spend growth, Zara was the only fast fashion brand to experience negative growth, with WSG dropping by 11.1%. In contrast, all other brands had positive weekly spend growth this week, with WSG up
Compiling that data for a birds-eye view of fast fashion spending last week, here’s how ATG and WoW spend growth fluctuated:
Weekly spend growth: 3.3%
Average ticket growth: 0.5%
Cosmetics Spending
Also demonstrating remarkable positive growth this week, cosmetics spending increased in terms of both ATG and WSG.
In particular, ATG for Ulta and Sephora was up 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively, while weekly spend growth changed as follows:
Sephora: 6.0% growth
Ulta: 14.2% growth
Category average: 7.7%
TikTok Shop Spending
Reversing last week’s backslides, TikTok Shop spending surged this week, with:
Weekly spend growth: 21.5%
Average ticket growth: 9.0%
This positive growth is notable not only because it reflects a snapback from last week’s declines but also because it occurred at a time when TikTok Shop’s future in the U.S. was uncertain due to regulatory pressures.
Other Retail Categories
Upsetting another 3-week trend, retail spending in other categories had far more positive growth than dropoffs this week. That meant that only two sectors had negative growth in ATG — Fast Food & Restaurants with ATG down 1.2% and Wholesale Clubs with ATG down 3.8%. All other sectors had positive average ticket growth, with Grocery at the low end, up 0.3%, while the ATG for Hardware & Home Supply was up 1.2% and Discount Store ATG was up 2.4%.
Notably, WSG had across-the-board growth in other categories this week, with:
Grocery spend growth: 2.6%
Wholesale Club spend growth: 1.4%
Discount Store spend growth: 8.6%
Hardware & Home Supply growth: 1.6%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
As we analyze this week’s retail transaction data across recent consumer behaviors and retail intelligence, some more nuanced findings start to come to light, including:
TikTok Shop Surge: Despite the looming regulatory challenges and potential shutdown announced for January 19th, TikTok Shop showed remarkable growth at 21.5%. This surge might reflect consumers rushing to make final purchases before the expected closure, or it could indicate the platform's growing importance in the retail landscape regardless of political headwinds.
Broad Retail Recovery: General Retail showed healthy growth at 4.6%, with major retailers like Target (5.5%), Walmart (5.4%), and Amazon (4.1%) all posting positive results. This suggests a normalization of spending patterns after the post-holiday lull.
Beauty Sector Rebound: The cosmetics category showed strong performance, with Ulta leading at 14.2% growth and Sephora at 6.0%, possibly indicating renewed consumer interest in self-care and beauty purchases for the new year.
Restaurant Recovery: Fast Food & Restaurant spending rebounded significantly with 9.0% growth, reversing recent negative trends.
Value Retail Strength: Discount Store growth of 8.6% suggests consumers remain value-conscious even as overall spending improves.
The standout story this week is clearly TikTok Shop's impressive performance amidst regulatory uncertainty. The platform's 21.5% growth, coupled with a 9.0% increase in average ticket size, suggests that both merchants and consumers have remained highly engaged despite the challenging political environment. This could indicate that digital commerce platforms, once they achieve critical mass with consumers, become more resilient to external pressures than previously thought.
The broader retail recovery across multiple categories is also encouraging, suggesting that consumers are returning to more normal spending patterns after the holiday season. The strong performance in both beauty and value retail sectors indicates that consumers are balancing discretionary purchases with value-seeking behavior.
As we continue through January, we'll be closely monitoring how these trends evolve, particularly in the digital commerce space as the regulatory landscape continues to develop.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,