Dear Reader,

Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending July 27, 2024. This week's data is particularly interesting as it reflects the post-Amazon Prime Day period and potentially the beginning of back-to-school shopping in some regions. Let's dive into the numbers and compare them with previous weeks.

This week's highlights are featured below.

General Retail Spending

General retail spending dropped sharply over the past week, reversing the previous weeks gains in both average ticket growth and week-over-week (WoW) spend growth. The lion’s share of those declines appears to be fueled by drops experienced by retail heavy-hitter Amazon, which saw average ticket growth drop by ~27% while WoW spending growth fell by just over 37%.

In contrast, some key competitors — including Temu, Target, and Walmart — experienced a mix of upticks and backslides in average ticket growth and WoW spend growth, resulting in the following general retail spending declines:

• Weekly spend growth: -24.1%

• Average ticket growth: -14.6%

Fast Fashion Spending

Apparel and fast fashion shopping displayed some slow growth last week, somewhat continuing the performance from the previous week. Specifically, apparel spending and fast fashion shopping experienced the following upticks last week.

• Weekly spend growth: 0.9%

• Average ticket growth: 0.1%

A key part of this growth was driven by increased consumer spending at H&M and SHEIN last week, with average ticket growth and WoW spend growth at SHEIN up ~3% and nearly 6%, respectively, while SHEIN had an average ticket growth of nearly 3% as well.

TikTok Shop Spending

For the second consecutive week, TikTok Shop spending declined, with:

• Weekly spend growth: -2.7%

• Average ticket growth: -5.7%

Notably, last week’s declines in TikTok Shop’s average ticket growth are roughly triple those of the previous week. On the other hand, weekly spend has shown improvements, despite two consecutive weeks of declines, with WoW spending growth down just 3% this past week (as opposed to nearly 13% the week before).

Other Categories

Turning to other retail catetories — including fast food & restaurants, grocery, wholesale clubs, discount stores, and home improvement — there were nearly across-the-board upticks in average ticket growth, with all categories seeing slight increases (under 1%), except for discount store spending, which fell by 1.4%

When looking at WoW spend growth, here’s how the other retail categories fared:

• Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -0.1%

• Grocery spend growth: 0%

• Wholesale Club spend growth: -0.7%

• Discount Store spend growth: -3.3%

• Hardware & Home Supply spend growth: -0.9%

Key Takeaways & Comparisons

Analyzing the latest retail transaction data can start to highlight some fascinating insights and important trends related to consumer spending and shopping across several areas:

1. General Retail: A dramatic reversal to -24.1% growth from last week's Prime Day-fueled 30.1% surge. This significant drop likely reflects a post-Prime Day spending hangover.

2. Fast Fashion: Slight positive growth at 0.9%, improving from last week's 0.0%. This could indicate early back-to-school shopping or resilience in this category post-Prime Day.

3. TikTok Shop: Continued decline at -2.7%, but less severe than last week's -12.5%. This suggests a possible stabilization after the Prime Day impact.

4. Fast Food & Restaurant: Nearly flat at -0.1%, down slightly from last week's 1.5% growth.

5. Grocery: Flat at 0% growth, a slight improvement from last week's -0.5%.

6. Discount Store: Decline of -3.3%, an improvement from last week's -7.0%, possibly indicating some back-to-school shopping.

The post-Prime Day effect is clearly visible in the General Retail category, with a sharp decline following last week's surge. This pattern is typical after major shopping events and was expected.

The slight positive growth in Fast Fashion and the improvement in Discount Store performance, while still negative, could be early indicators of back-to-school shopping. As we move into August, we expect to see these trends potentially strengthen, especially in regions where schools start earlier.

TikTok Shop's continued decline, albeit at a slower rate, suggests that it may still be finding its footing in the broader retail landscape, especially in relation to major events like Prime Day.

The stability in Grocery and Fast Food & Restaurant categories indicates that consumer spending in these essential areas remains consistent, despite fluctuations in discretionary retail spending.

As we approach August, we'll be closely monitoring for stronger signs of back-to-school shopping impact across various categories. We also expect to see a normalization of spending patterns in General Retail as the Prime Day effect fades (and Amazon looks ahead to Big Deal Days spending in October).

If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.

Best regards,

The Facteus Team

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