Dear Reader,

Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending November 2, 2024. As we enter November and approach the traditional holiday shopping season, we're seeing mixed signals across retail categories.

Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.

The latest highlights are featured below.

General Retail Spending

Rebounding after a retail “hangover” and recent pullbacks, general retail spending this week had a slight decline in week-over-week (WoW) spend growth while the average ticket growth (ATG) increased at almost the same pace.

Specifically, when compared to general retail spending in the recent past, Amazon was the only retailer to see upticks in ATG, with a 1.3% increase that translated into an average ticket of $69.96. In contrast, Target, Temu, and Walmart all had negative ATG this week, with the average ticket growth declining by 2.2%, 0.6%, and 0.5%, respectively.

Remarkably, the opposite was true with WoW spend growth, with Amazon being the only retailer to see declines here, as its weekly spend growth dropped by 5.5%. On the other hand, Target, Walmart, and Temu had upticks here of roughly 3.9%, 3.4%, and 2.3%, respectively.

Combining that data, here’s how general retail spending fluctuated last week when compared to the previous 7-day period:

• Weekly spend growth: -1.1%

• Average ticket growth: 0.9%

Fast Fashion Spending

Dipping from last week, fast fashion spending decreased this week, with both average ticket growth and weekly spend growth down — and with SHEIN being the only fast fashion brand to see across-the-board upticks this week. In particular, SHEIN’s average ticket growth grew by ~1.3%, putting the average ticket at $95.94, while the weekly spend growth for SHEIN rose by 0.5%.

Uniqlo was the only fast fashion brand to see mixed results, with ATG down 1.6% while the weekly spend growth increased by 0.8%.

With Zara and H&M, the spending landscape was less sunny this week, as both brands saw declines in each of these metrics, with ATG at Zara and H&M down by 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively, while WoW spend growth declined by 10.2% and 8.3%, respectively.

Overall, that meant that fast fashion spending last week had:

• Weekly spend growth: -3.9%

• Average ticket growth: -0.9%

TikTok Shop Spending

Once again taking a dip, TikTok Shop spending declined this week, with:

• Weekly spend growth: -6.8%

• Average ticket growth: -3.8%

This continues the zigzagging trend of spending at TikTok Shop, with alternating ups and downs from week to week that continue to paint a picture of turbulence in this retail space. As we get closer to the holidays, it remains to be seen if this trend will pivot to one of more positive or negative growth during the end-of-year shopping season.

Other Retail Categories

Showing a mix of positive and negative growth this week, other categories in retail spending tended to experience negative ATG growth, despite positive weekly spend growth.

With ATG, the only winner here was the Discount Store category, with a positive ATG of 0.3%. All other categories had declining average ticket growth this week, with Grocery and Home Supply ATG down ~1%, Fast Food and Restaurant ATG down 1.7%, and Wholesale Club ATG down 1.8%.

Looking at WoW spend growth, here’s how spending shifted across other retail categories this week:

• Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -3.6%

• Grocery spend growth: 2.2%

• Wholesale Club spend growth: 10.9%

• Discount Store spend growth: 2.6%

• Hardware & Home Supply growth: -2.0%

Key Takeaways & Comparisons

Taking a birdseye view of this week’s retail transaction data and consumer intelligence, we can put it in context with previous week’s retail data and trends to continue to uncovering key insights and emerging trends associated with:

1. General Retail: The modest -1.1% decline, coupled with positive average ticket growth, suggests continued stabilization following October's Prime Day volatility.

2. Wholesale Clubs:  A strong performance with 10.9% growth, potentially indicating early holiday stock-up behavior or response to promotional activities.

3. Fast Fashion: Continued decline at -3.9%, though less severe than last week's -6.8%, suggesting the category is still adjusting after recent promotional periods.

4. Discount & Grocery Stores: Both categories showed positive growth (2.6% and 2.2% respectively), suggesting consumers may be focusing more on value and essentials.

5. TikTok Shop: A significant shift to -6.8% growth from last week's flat performance, possibly indicating platform-specific factors or broader shifts in online shopping behavior.

This week's data presents an interesting picture as we enter the holiday shopping season. Notably:

• The strong performance in Wholesale Club spending, coupled with positive growth in Discount Stores and Grocery, might indicate that consumers are preparing for the holiday season while remaining value-conscious.

• The continued moderation in General Retail declines suggests we're seeing a normalization of spending patterns after October's promotional events. The positive average ticket growth could indicate that while fewer transactions are occurring, consumers are making larger purchases when they do shop.

• The decline in TikTok Shop spending is noteworthy and bears watching as we move into the holiday season. This could be a temporary adjustment or signal shifting consumer preferences in digital shopping platforms.

• The Fast Fashion category's continued decline, albeit at a slower rate, might suggest consumers are taking a pause before holiday shopping begins in earnest.

As we move deeper into November, we'll be closely monitoring for signs of early holiday shopping behavior and how economic factors might influence consumer spending patterns. The positive growth in value-oriented categories (Wholesale Club, Discount Store) could be an early indicator of how consumers plan to approach their holiday shopping this year.

Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.

If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.

Best regards,

The Facteus Team

Explore Our Win the Week™ Retail Spending Series