Dear Reader,

Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending November 9, 2024. As we move deeper into November, we're seeing some interesting shifts in spending patterns that might indicate early holiday shopping behavior.

Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.

The latest highlights are featured below.

General Retail Spending

Continuing to bounce back after early October declines, general retail spending this week saw positive growth in both week-over-week (WoW) spend growth and the average ticket growth (ATG).

Specifically, when compared to last week’s general retail spending data, all brands tracked had significant upticks in ATG, with Temu and Walmart at the lower end of ATG growth at 1.8% and 2%, respectively, while Amazon and Target nearly doubled that, with average ticket growth of 3.7% and 3.8%, respectively. Notably, however, Walmart had the highest average ticket by dollar amount this week ($88.43) while Temu was at the lower end of the spectrum with an average ticket of $75.52.

Pivoting to WoW spend growth, only one brand had declines this week, and that was Walmart, with a negative weekly spend growth of 4.1%. In contrast, Target and Amazon had WoW spend growth increase by 2.8% while Temu was the big winner with an 11.4% gain in this area.

Combining that data, here’s how general retail spending fluctuated last week when compared to the previous 7-day period:

• Weekly spend growth: 0.2%

• Average ticket growth: 2.7%

Fast Fashion Spending

Somewhat improving from last week, fast fashion spending had across-the-board upticks in weekly spend growth while the average ticket growth brought both positive and negative growth.

Looking at ATG, H&M and Zara had the biggest drops this week, with ATG declines of 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Overshadowing those losses were the ATG increases for both Uniqlo and SHEIN, which saw average ticket growth rise by 3.7% and 7.6%, respectively.

WIth weekly spend growth, all brands had positive growth this week, with Zara and H&M once again at the low end here (0.4% and 1.1%, respectively) while Uniqlo had positive growth of 2.4%. Astoundingly, SHEIN’s weekly spend growth skyrocketed this week, rising by 30.5%.

Overall, that meant that fast fashion spending last week had:

• Weekly spend growth: 5.6%

• Average ticket growth: -0.9%

TikTok Shop Spending

Also rebounding this wee was TikTok Shop spending, with:

• Weekly spend growth: 16.8%

• Average ticket growth: 0.8%

Remarkably, we’re continuing to see TikTok Shop spending zigzag from one week to the next, with significant upticks one week, followed by backslides the next, and rebounds after that. As the holidays approach, we could see TikTok Shop spending break this trend with week over week positive growth — or persistent declines — depending on the platform’s offerings and how sale-focused consumers may be.

Other Retail Categories

With more positive than negative growth this week, other categories in retail spending tended to experience positive ATG growth, despite some declines in weekly spend growth.

With ATG, the only category to see negative growth this week was Fast Food and Restaurants, with average ticket growth down 1%. In contrast, the average ticket growth was up for grocery spending (1%), wholesale club spending (2.7&), hardware and home supply spending (3.1%), and discount store spending (4.3%).

Pivoting to WoW spend growth, here’s how spending shifted across other retail categories this week:

• Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -2.6%

• Grocery spend growth: -4.0%

• Wholesale Club spend growth: -8.0%

• Discount Store spend growth: 3.4%

• Hardware & Home Supply growth: 0.8%

Key Takeaways & Comparisons

Analyzing this week’s retail transaction data across recent consumer intelligence, we can continue to uncover some key insights and emerging trends associated with:

1. General Retail: Returns to positive territory with 0.2% growth and a healthy 2.7% increase in average ticket size, suggesting consumers might be beginning their holiday shopping.

2. Wholesale Clubs:  A notable decline to -8.0% after last week's strong 10.9% growth, possibly indicating a normalization after stock-up behavior.

3. Fast Fashion: Rebounded significantly to 5.6% growth from last week's -3.9%, with some retailers showing particularly strong performance (up to 30.5% growth).

4. Discount Stores: Continued positive momentum at 3.4%, improving from last week's 2.6%, suggesting value-conscious holiday shopping.

5. TikTok Shop: A dramatic turnaround with 16.8% growth from last week's -6.8%, potentially indicating strong early holiday promotions on the platform.

This week's data suggests we might be seeing the first signs of holiday shopping activity.

• The positive growth across General Retail, Fast Fashion, and TikTok Shop, combined with increasing average ticket sizes, could indicate consumers are beginning to make their holiday purchases.

• The strong performance of TikTok Shop is particularly noteworthy and may reflect the platform's growing importance in holiday shopping strategies. The 16.8% growth represents a significant shift in consumer behavior on this platform.

• The decline in Wholesale Club spending after last week's surge could suggest that consumers have completed their initial stock-up for the holiday season and are now turning their attention to gift purchases, as evidenced by the growth in retail and fashion categories.

• The continued strength in Discount Store spending, coupled with positive growth in Hardware & Home Supply, might indicate that consumers are balancing their holiday shopping between traditional retail and value-oriented channels.

As we approach the traditional peak of the holiday shopping season, these trends provide valuable insights into consumer behavior. The broad-based growth in retail categories, combined with increasing average ticket sizes, could signal strong consumer confidence heading into the holiday season.

Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.

If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.

Best regards,

The Facteus Team

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