Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Sept. 14, 2024)
Dear Reader,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending September 14, 2024. This week's data reveals a broad-based decline in consumer spending across multiple categories.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
Dropping off from last week, general retail spending experienced near across-the-board drops in both week-over-week (WoW) spend growth and average ticket growth (ATG).
In fact, when compared to general retail spending last week, the only uptick was seen in the ATG for Temu, which increased by 0.4%. Outside of that, the other major retailers tracked had slight to more substantial dips in ATG and WoW spend growth, with Temu and Amazon at the lower end of those declines while Walmart and Target both had far larger dropoffs. Specifically, the ATG for Walmart and Target fell fell by 1.8% and 1.3%, respectively, while the WoW spend growth declined by 5.3% and 5.1%, respectively.
Combining that data, here’s what general retail spending looked like last week:
Weekly spend growth: -4.8%
Average ticket growth: -1.1%
Fast Fashion Spending
Taking a cue from general retail spending last week, fast fashion purchases also dropped off, particularly in WoW spend growth, with SHEIN being the only brand to experience an uptick last week (of 0.2%).
For Zara, H&M, and Uniqlo, the declines in WoW spend ranged from 3.9% to ~6%. When looking at the ATG last week, however, H&M and Uniqlo fared better much better than their competitors, with upticks of 3.9% and 5.2%, respectively, while SHEIN and Zara had declines of 0.2% and 1.8%, respectively.
Overall, that meant that fast fashion spending last week had:
Weekly spend growth: -7.1%
Average ticket growth: 1.2%
Interestingly, fast fashion spending has been extremely hot and cold over the past months, seeing some of the sharpest spikes and declines when compared to other retail categories.
TikTok Shop Spending
Another area to see declines in consumer spending over the past week was TikTok Shop, with:
Weekly spend growth: 3.3%
Average ticket growth: -1.2%
Remarkably, this data appears to continue the trend of zigzagging and bouncing around, with TikTok Shop spending up substantially last week, down the week prior, and now down again this week. Looking out to next week, could retail transaction data show the pendulum swinging back to reveal another round of upticks in ATG and WoW spend growth in TikTok Shop?
Only time will tell, and we’ll be reporting on that next week, so stay tuned.
Other Retail Categories
Rounding out last week’s declines, other retail categories experienced sweeping declines in both ATG and WoW spend growth. In particular, ATG dropoffs ranged from 1.5% at discount stores to 5.9% at hardware and home supply retailers while WoW spend growth declined by anywhere from 2.7% in the fast food and restaurant sector to 14.7% in the home improvement niche. With that, here’s a closer look at the dropoffs in WoW spend growth for other retail categories last week:
Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -2.7%
Grocery spend growth: -4.4%
Wholesale Club spend growth: -5.7%
Discount Store spend growth: -5.1%
Hardware & Home Supply spend growth: -14.7%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
When we put the latest retail transaction data into context with consumer spending intelligence from the past few weeks, we can unearth deeper insights and eye-opening trends related to consumer shopping across several areas:
General Retail: The -4.8% decline represents a significant drop from last week's -1.1%, indicating a broader pullback in consumer spending.
Fast Fashion: Despite a slight increase in average ticket size, the -7.1% decline in weekly spend suggests consumers may be cutting back on discretionary clothing purchases.
TikTok Shop: Continues to show resilience with 3.3% growth, though this is a slowdown from last week's 5.7%. It remains the only category with positive growth this week.
Grocery and Wholesale Club: Both categories saw significant declines (-4.4% and -5.7% respectively), suggesting a potential pullback in household essentials spending.
Hardware & Home Supply: A sharp decline of -14.7% contrasts starkly with last week's 6.4% growth, possibly indicating the end of a home improvement trend or a pause in such projects.
Fast Food & Restaurant: Spending here continued to decline to the tune of -2.7%, reflecting an ongoing trend of reduced spending in this category.
This week's data paints a picture of broad-based consumer spending contraction, with dropoffs in spending across almost all categories, including essentials like grocery and discount stores. With that, here are some crucial takeaways to keep in mind for the weeks ahead:
This week’s declines could indicate tightening household budgets or growing economic caution among consumers.
The continued, albeit slowing, growth of TikTok Shop is noteworthy amidst the general decline. This suggests that while overall spending is down, consumers might be shifting some of their purchases to newer, potentially more value-driven platforms.
The sharp reversal in Hardware & Home Supply spending is particularly striking and may signal the end of a home improvement boom that we've observed in recent weeks.
As we move further into fall, these trends raise questions about consumer confidence and spending patterns heading into the crucial holiday shopping season. We'll be closely monitoring whether this represents a temporary pullback or the beginning of a more prolonged period of cautious consumer spending.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,