Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Sept. 28, 2024)
Dear Reader,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending September 28, 2024. This week's data shows a mixed picture with subtle shifts across various retail categories.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
Somewhat treading water when compared to last week’s spending, general retail spending saw slight declines in average ticket growth (ATG) and week-over-week (WoW), with only a couple of brands showing upticks this week.
Specifically, when compared to general retail spending last week, ATG for Target and Amazon was down by about 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively. In contrast, Temu and Walmart experienced increases in ATG this week, rising by roughly 0.4% and 2%, respectively.
With WoW spend growth, Walmart was the only brand to see upticks this week, jumping up nearly 3%. On the flip side, Temu, Target, and Walmart had dips in WoW spend growth, dropping between roughly 0.3% and 2%.
Combining that data, here’s how general retail spending fluctuated last week:
Weekly spend growth: -0.1%
Average ticket growth: -0.5%
Fast Fashion Spending
Shaking up last week’s results, fast fashion spending was a mixed bag this week, with Zara taking the lead in both average ticket growth and weekly spend growth. In particular, ATG for Zara this week rose by 4% while WoW spend growth climbed by nearly 3%.
On the other side of the spectrum, the biggest dips in ATG and WoW spend growth for fast fashion were both associated with Uniqlo, with this brand’s ATG dropping by 1.4% as its WoW spend growth fell by 5.5%. H&M also had across-the-board declines in ATG and WoW spend growth, with drops of roughly 1.3% and 0.9%, respectively.
The only fast fashion brand to see some ups and downs in this week’s results was SHEIN, with the ATG up 0.4% while the WoW spend growth was down 2.8%.
Overall, that meant that fast fashion spending last week had:
Weekly spend growth: -1.5%
Average ticket growth: 1.6%
Fascinatingly, average ticket growth for fast fashion spending stayed has consistently high over the past couple of weeks, showing some steadying resilience after bouncing back from the zigzagging it had demonstrated earlier in September.
TikTok Shop Spending
Once again reversing paths, TikTok Shop continued to display some spending shakeups, with:
Weekly spend growth: 1.2%
Average ticket growth: -2.4%
With that, TikTok Shop spending kept up its pattering of alternating upticks and backslides in weekly spend growth and average ticket growth, continuing to zigzag with ATG down one week while WoW spend growth is up, only to be followed by the opposite the following week.
While this could reflect consumers’ ongoing price sensitivity, it may also speak to shifting shopping patterns among younger generations, particularly as we move toward the end of fall.
Other Retail Categories
Continuing to improve from last week, other categories in retail spending all had moderate to substantial increases in average ticket growth this week, with fast food and restaurant spending up by 1% while hardware and home supply spending rose by about 3.2%.
In terms of WoW spend growth, here’s a closer look at those shifts this week:
Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -1.4%
Grocery spend growth: 1.0%
Wholesale Club spend growth: -0.4%
Discount Store spend growth: 2.1%
Hardware & Home Supply spend growth: 0.4%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
Evaluating this retail transaction data against consumer intelligence from the past couple of months, we can continue to glean some richer insights and emerging trends associated with:
General Retail: The -0.1% decline represents a slight improvement from last week's -0.4%, suggesting a continued stabilization in overall retail spending.
Fast Fashion: Shifted to negative territory with -1.5% growth, a reversal from last week's positive performance. However, the increase in average ticket size suggests fewer but larger purchases.
TikTok Shop: Rebounded to positive growth at 1.2%, reversing last week's decline. This platform continues to show volatility in spending patterns.
Discount Stores: Maintained positive growth at 2.1%, slightly higher than last week, indicating sustained consumer interest in value-oriented purchases.
Grocery: Showed positive growth at 1.0%, reversing last week's decline and potentially indicating increased at-home consumption.
Hardware & Home Supply: Returned to positive territory with 0.4% growth, a significant improvement from recent weeks' declines.
This week's data suggests a retail landscape that's showing signs of stabilization with some categories demonstrating resilience. The overall picture is one of cautious consumer spending, with a tilt towards value and essentials. Specifically:
The continued positive performance of Discount Stores, coupled with growth in Grocery spending, may indicate that consumers are prioritizing essential purchases and seeking value. This could be an important trend to watch as we approach the holiday shopping season.
The volatility in TikTok Shop spending continues to be a noteworthy trend, potentially reflecting the platform's evolving role in consumer shopping habits.
The return to positive growth for Hardware & Home Supply, albeit modest, could signal a renewed interest in home improvement projects as we move into fall.
As we enter October and move closer to the holiday season, we'll be closely monitoring these trends for signs of how consumer spending patterns might evolve. The mix of stabilization in some categories and shifts in others suggests a dynamic retail environment ahead.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,