Dear Reader,

Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending September 7, 2024. As we move into early fall, we're observing some interesting shifts in spending patterns across various retail categories.

Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.

The latest highlights are featured below.

General Retail Spending

Showing some improvements from general retail spending the previous week, last week, there were more upticks for big box and big-name retailers, with Amazon, Target, and Temu all experiencing gains in week-over-week (WoW) spend growth or average ticket growth (ATG). In fact, while both Amazon and Target had WoW spend growth that was roughly on par with each other (about 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively), the average ticket growth at Temu was slightly higher, at 2.1% over the past week.

Notably, Walmart was the only retailer in this category to experience decreases in WoW spend growth and average ticket growth, with ~1.2% and ~2.7% declines in these areas, respectively.

The combination of those dips and upticks resulted in the following for general retail spending last week:

• Weekly spend growth: -1.1%

• Average ticket growth: 0.4%

Less than a month from Amazon Big Deal Days in October, many retailers are eager to see less volatility and more upticks in WoW spend growth and ATG.

Fast Fashion Spending

Also experiencing some recent shakeups were fast fashion brands, with Zarz H&M, SHEIN, and Uniqlo all seeing gains in WoW spend growth and average ticket growth last week. Specifically, WoW spend growth ranged from roughly 2.8% for H&M to nearly 9% for SEHIN while average ticket growth was anywhere from about 1.4% (H&M) to almost 7% SHIEN.

Overall, that meant that fast fashion spending last week had:

• Weekly spend growth: 0.5%

• Average ticket growth: -1.1% ($142.60 last week versus $144.15 two weeks ago).

Interestingly, consumer spending at SHEIN appeared to cool off the most while Uniqlo seemed to be last week’s “comeback” kid, bouncing back strongly after a more than 25% drop in WoW spend growth two weeks ago.

TikTok Shop Spending

Another remarkable bounce back in consumer spending last week came via TikTok Shop spending, with:

• Weekly spend growth: 5.7%

• Average ticket growth: 4.9%

Continuing its recent zigzagging over the last couple of months, TikTok Shop spending had been down quite a bit two weeks ago with ATG at -15% and WoW spend growth at -16.5%. Will next week’s retail transaction data carry on this trend by bringing another round of dips? We’ll see (and stay tuned for that).

Other Retail Categories

Looking at other retailers, most experienced slight to moderate gains in average ticket growth last week, with discount stores at the low end of the spectrum (0.4%) and fast food and restaurants at the upper end (3.3%). In fact, the only category to experience a drop in average ticket growth last week was grocery stores, which dropped by nearly 1%. In terms of WoW spend growth, the only retail category to experience gains last week as hardware and home supply:

• Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -1.8%

• Grocery spend growth: -3.0%

• Wholesale Club spend growth: -1.6%

• Discount Store spend growth: -1.4%

• Hardware & Home Supply spend growth: 6.4%

Key Takeaways & Comparisons

By contextualizing the latest transaction data with the retail market intelligence from prior weeks, we can start to uncover some fascinating insights and key trends related to consumer spending and shopping across several areas:

1. General Retail: The slight decline of -1.1% suggests a continued cautious approach to spending, though the average ticket size has increased slightly.
   

2. Fast Fashion: Despite modest overall growth of 0.5%, individual retailers within this category showed significant positive growth in both average ticket size and weekly spend. This could indicate a resurgence in clothing purchases as we enter the fall season.
   

3. TikTok Shop: A strong rebound with 5.7% growth, reversing last week's sharp decline. This volatility underscores the platform's evolving role in consumer shopping habits.
   

4. Grocery and Wholesale Club: Both categories showed declines (-3.0% and -1.6% respectively), potentially indicating a normalization of spending patterns after the back-to-school season.
   

5. Hardware & Home Supply: Continued strong growth at 6.4%, suggesting ongoing interest in home improvement projects as we transition into fall.
   

6. Fast Food & Restaurant: The -1.8% decline continues the trend of reduced spending in this category, possibly reflecting tighter budgets or a shift towards home-cooked meals.

These trends paint a picture of shifting consumer priorities as we enter the fall season, revealing some key insights:

• The strong performance in Fast Fashion and Hardware & Home Supply suggests consumers are focusing on personal and home updates.

• The rebound in TikTok Shop spending is noteworthy and may indicate the platform's growing importance in the retail landscape.

• The declines in Grocery and Wholesale Club spending, following strong growth last week, could suggest that consumers are settling into more regular shopping patterns after the summer and back-to-school rush.

As we move further into September, we'll be closely monitoring for early signs of holiday shopping trends and how economic factors might influence consumer spending across various categories. The continued growth in home improvement spending is particularly interesting and could be a trend to watch as we approach the holiday season.

Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.

If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.

Best regards,

The Facteus Team

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