Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Dec. 14, 2024)
Dear Reader,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending December 14, 2024. As we move into mid-December, we're seeing interesting shifts in holiday shopping patterns.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
With steep declines after weeks of positive growth, general retail spending this week had near across-the-board dropoffs, with only one brand experiencing positive growth in both week-over-week (WoW) spend growth and average ticket growth (ATG). This week’s winner, when compared to last week’s spending, was Target, with ATG up 3.8% and WoW spend growth up 7.5%.
All other brands had minor to larger declines in both ATG and WoW spend growth, with Walmart at the lower end, dropping 1.2% in both areas. In contrast, Amazon and TEMU had bigger declines in ATG and WoW spend growth this week, with ATG down 6.7% and 0.9%, respectively, while WoW spend growth declined 5.1% and 19.5%, respectively.
Compiling that data, here’s how general retail spending fluctuated last week when compared to the previous 7-day period:
Weekly spend growth: -3.1%
Average ticket growth: -4.2%
Fast Fashion Spending
Doubling down on last week’s declines, fast fashion spending had across-the-board negative growth this week, with all brands tracked experiencing minor to substantial dropoffs in spending.
In terms of average ticket growth, SHEIN and Uniqlo had the most limited declines, with ATG dropping by 1.5% and 5.4%, respectively. H&M and Zara, on the other hand, had much larger drops in ATG this week, with drops of 7.7% and 9.0%, respectively.
In terms of weekly spend growth, Zara, H&M, and Uniqlo experienced more minor declines of 0.6%, 1.2%, and 1.2%, respectively. SHEIN had the largest dropoffs, with WoW spend growth down 34.8% this week.
The big-picture for fast fashion spending last week resulted in the following:
Weekly spend growth: -14.4%
Average ticket growth: -3.1%
Cosmetics Spending
In contrast with general retail and fast fashion spending this week, cosmetics spending experienced some sharp positive growth, with ATG for Ulta and Sephora up 2.2% and 1.7%, respectively, while WoW spend growth rose by 8.9% and 21.6%, respectively.
TikTok Shop Spending
Snapping back after last week’s positive growth, TikTok Shop spending declined this week, with:
Weekly spend growth: -14.0%
Average ticket growth: -8.9%
These declines, while somewhat consistent with the dropoffs in other retail spending this week, reflect a sharp halt in week-over-week increases in this sector in recent weeks. While this could signal a “pause” in consumer spending before the last-minute shopping rushes, it may also indicate a more lasting dropoff until after the holidays. Future data will soon have better answers and insights regarding consumer behavior and what could be on deck for 2025.
Other Retail Categories
With more negative growth than gains this week, retail spending in other categories had some clear “winners” this week — namely, Fast Food & Restaurants,, as well as Grocery Stores.
That’s because ATG for Fast Food & Restaurants and Grocery Stores was up 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively, while weekly spend growth for these sectors increased by 5.8% and 5.1%, respectively.
Here’s how weekly spend growth evolved this week across various other retail categories:
Grocery spend growth: 5.1%
Wholesale Club spend growth: -13.7%
Discount Store spend growth: -0.7%
Hardware & Home Supply growth: -21.1%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
Analyzing this week’s retail transaction data across recent consumer intelligence, some deeper insights start to come to light, including:
Mixed Retail Performance: General Retail showed a moderate decline of -3.1%, though Target bucked the trend with 7.5% growth. This suggests consumers may be becoming more selective in their holiday shopping destinations.
Beauty Category Strength: Cosmetics retailers showed impressive growth, with Sephora (21.6%) and Ulta (8.9%) both performing well, indicating strong demand for beauty products as holiday gifts.
Fast Fashion Slowdown: The -14.4% decline in apparel spending, with significant drops at SHEIN (-34.8%) and other retailers, suggests a post-promotional period adjustment after recent sales events.
Food Service Recovery: Fast Food & Restaurant (5.8%) and Grocery (5.1%) categories showed positive growth, possibly reflecting increased social and family gatherings as the holidays approach.
Home Improvement Decline: The sharp drop in Hardware & Home Supply (-21.1%) likely indicates a seasonal shift away from home projects as holiday shopping takes priority.
The data this week reveals an evolving holiday shopping landscape. Specifically:
The strong performance in beauty suggests consumers are focusing on personal care and gift-able items, while the decline in general retail might indicate a more measured approach to holiday spending compared to the early season rush.
The significant decline in Fast Fashion and TikTok Shop could indicate a normalization after recent promotional periods, though the magnitude of the drops suggests consumers might be shifting their spending to other categories or timing their purchases differently this year.
The positive growth in food-related categories, coupled with declines in home improvement, points to a shift in consumer priorities toward entertaining and gatherings rather than home projects as we enter the peak holiday period.
As we approach the final weeks of holiday shopping, we'll be watching to see if these trends continue or if we observe a last-minute surge in spending across categories.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,