As Target Holiday Sales Stumble, Some Say Retailer Needs to 'Win Back the Moms'

Kicking off 2025, Target’s performance has been more lackluster than the Red Bullseye retailer anticipated, with sluggish holiday sales that paled in comparison to rivals, like Walmart and Amazon — and with huge investments in holiday ad spending not necessarily paying off in profits or greater market share. 

That’s according to the latest Facteus data, which reveals some eye-opening insights into Target's holiday strategy, along with some potential lessons for retailers looking to ‘win’ with increasingly price-conscious consumers this year.

To explore more consumer insights and retail intelligence, check out our reports on Cyber Monday data in 2024, Black Friday spending in 2024, and Millennial spending declines over Amazon Prime Day.

Black Friday Spending Trends for Target vs Other Big Box Retailers

Initiating the end-of-year shopping season, the week of Black Friday is generally a crucial launch for holiday sales, with retailers across the board hoping to see major upticks in revenue during this highly competitive period. 

Black Friday & Cyber Monday spending at Target

According to Facteus data, Target had relatively flat year-over-year (YoY) growth over Black Friday. Specifically, Target Black Friday spending totaled more than $500 million.

That Target spending over Black Friday 2024 remained generally steady, when compared to 2023, and it was substantially less than:

  • Amazon Black Friday spending at ~$900 million

  • Walmart Black Friday spending topping $1.77 billion

Target’s early stagnation among big box retailers is somewhat surprising, given the fact that this brand invested far more in ad spending, particularly trying to get in front of younger generations on TikTok

However, Target’s slowdown was not a complete shock to some industry experts, with reports in early 2024 suggesting that Target has lost crucial ground to Walmart with Gen Z shoppers — and that Walmart has been outperforming Target fairly consistently throughout 2024. 

Target Spending & the Taylor Swift Effect 

Focused on gaining a stronghold on Swiftie spending over the 2024 holiday season, Target had an exclusive partnership with Taylor Swift to sell her “Eras Tour Book.” 

With an impressive 814,000 print units flying off the shelves in the first two days, this record-setting launch was the most successful book launch recorded in 2024.

Nevertheless, it did not buoy Target’s sales enough to make a major difference over the entire holiday shopping season. 

That finding is fascinating because, historically, Swiftie spending has been a major source of holiday sales for nearly all types of retailers, from Etsy e-commerce shops to department stores, big box stores, and others.

5 Post-Black Friday Challenges for Target

Following Black Friday and Cyber Monday, Target’s end-of-year performance did not improve all that much, with: 

  • Only slight increases in December spending: Facteus data shows that, from Black Friday through mid-December, YoY Target spending was up a modest ~2%.

  • Declining in-store traffic: After Cyber Monday sales ended, foot traffic in Target stores dropped off nearly ~7%.

Target’s inability to sustain post-Black Friday sales may be related to several factors, including (and not necessarily limited to):

  • Fierce competition: Walmart and Amazon not only outperformed Target in sales volume, but these competitors also seemed to leverage aggressive pricing and promotions that appealed to a wider consumer base.

  • Consumer behavior: Shoppers preferred to buy online in 2024, and that didn’t work in Target’s favor. In fact, with more than ~80% of Target’s sales occurring in stores, the Red Bullseye retailer simply fell behind in e-commerce, failing to eke out greater market share with online consumers.

  • Non-essential merchandise: With an ever-increasing eye toward the essentials, consumers who are more price-sensitive than ever seem to be weeding out non-necessities from their shopping lists. That could have created problems for Target, which is teeming with non-essentials.

  • Discounts and pricing: With consumers shopping for the best deals — and with many retailers offering extended sales and deep discounts — Target’s sales may have been overshadowed by better deals available at competitors.

  • Lost ground with key demographics: Online shoppers and Gen Z were not generally flocking to Target in astounding numbers in Dec. 2024. That, coupled with declining foot traffic and stagnant YoY growth, has some suspecting that Target has lost substantial footing with its “mom” shoppers, a critical backbone of Target’s customer base.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Target?

With the 2024 holiday season in the rearview mirror, the latest Facteus data uncovers some important insights regarding consumer preferences, adaptability, pricing, and what it may take for Target (and others) to regain crucial momentum in 2025. 

While data-driven strategies, more competitive promotions, and digital innovation can be key in these turnarounds, so can a vigilant eye on spending and credit card data. That can help retailers and others keep their fingers on the pulse of the latest shifts in consumer behaviors, spending, and the strategies essential to staying ahead of the competition in 2025 and after.

About Facteus

Setting the bar higher for alternative data providers, Facteus is a national leader in transaction data, delivering unparalleled retail intelligence. With Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the holiday shopping season serving as pivotal retail events, Facteus data maintains an unmatched 1-day lag in data delivery, empowering leaders and key decision-makers with real-time consumer insights and an unequaled ability to uncover all-new trends. 

From tracking spending patterns to identifying key shifts in consumer behaviors, Facteus delivers reliable, expansive datasets to fuel smarter decisions and winning strategies. That can open the door to revenue-boosting competitor intelligence, powerful consumer insights, and growth-focused strategies. 

More Retail Transaction Data Insights

Next
Next

Cyber Monday Shatters Records, Surpassing Black Friday Spending