Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Jan. 11, 2025)
Dear Reader,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter. This second week of January shows the continuing post-holiday spending patterns, with most retail categories experiencing declines compared to the previous week.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
As the third consecutive week of more declines than gains, general retail spending this week dropped off nearly across the board, with all brands in the red for average ticket growth (ATG) and growth in week-over-week (WoW) spend growth this week, except for one.
The “winner” in general retail this week, when compared to last week’s retail data, was Target, with ATG up 3.8%. All other brands saw AG decline this week, with Walmart and Amazon at the lower end, seeing ATG decline by 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, while TEMU had a larger dropoff of 1.7%.
With ATG, no general retail brands had positive growth this week. In fact, while TEMU and Amazon were at the lower end of these declines, with WoW spend growth dropping by ~0.8% and 4.5%, respectively, Walmart and Target had deeper declines of 10.1% and 10.4%, respectively.
Compiling that data, here’s how general retail spending changed last week when compared to the previous 7-day period:
Weekly spend growth: -7.0%
Average ticket growth: -0.8%
Fast Fashion Spending
With more posiive growth this week than general retail spending, fast fashion spending zigzagged this week, with far more positive growth in ATG. Specifically, the only fast fashion brand to see declining ATG this week was Uniqlo, with average ticket growth down 3.7%. In contrast, Zara, H&M, and SHEIN all had positive ATG this week, with average ticket growth up 1.5%, 3.5%, and 3.8%, respectively.
In terms of weekly spend growth, SHEIN was the only brand to experience positive growth this week, with WoW spend growth up 9.6%. All other brands had much steeper declines, with WoW spend growth down 8.6% at Zara, 23.0% at Uniqlo, and 32.8% at H&M.
Evaluating that data for a bigger-picture view of fast fashion spending last week, here’s how ATG and WoW spend growth fluctuated:
Weekly spend growth: -15.8%
Average ticket growth: 0.9%
Cosmetics Spending
Also demonstrating a mix of ups and downs this week, cosmetics spending increased in terms of ATG while WoW spend growth dropped.
In particular, ATG for Ulta and Sephora was up 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while WoW spend growth dropped as follows:
Sephora: -25.5% growth
Ulta: -23.2% growth
Category average: -19.7%
TikTok Shop Spending
Falling this week after last week’s positive growth, TikTok Shop spending declined, with:
Weekly spend growth: -5.3%
Average ticket growth: -0.3%
These declines halt a pattern of increases that TikTok had been experiencing after the holiday shopping period at the end of 2024. While they could be a momentarily hiccup during a somewhat slow period for retailers, these declines may be kicking off a longer trend of consumers closing their wallets and waiting until the next sales holiday to scoop up deals. We’ll see which is more likely as the TikTok Shop spending data for the next few weeks becomes available.
Other Retail Categories
For the third week in a row, retail spending in other categories has had more negative than positive growth. This week, the only sector to experience positive growth was Hardware & Home Supply, with ATG up 1.9%.
All other categories saw ATG go in the red this week, with more minor declines for Grocery (down 0.4%), Discount Stores (down 0.6%), and Wholesale Clubs (down 1.2%) while the largest dropoff was in Fast Food and Restaurant spending, which fell by 16.9%.
Here’s how weekly spend growth changed this week across various other retail categories:
Grocery spend growth: -8.7%
Wholesale Club spend growth: -7.7%
Discount Store spend growth: -10.4%
Hardware & Home Supply growth: -12.5%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
As we evaluate this week’s retail transaction data alongside recent consumer behaviors and retail intelligence, some subtler insights begin emerge, including:
Broad Retail Decline: General Retail's -7.0% decline continues the post-holiday adjustment, though at a more moderate pace than the previous week (-9.8%). Target and Walmart showed similar declines (-10.4% and -10.1% respectively).
Fast Fashion Mixed Results: While the category overall declined -15.8%, SHEIN showed resilience with 9.6% growth. However, other major retailers like H&M (-32.8%) and Uniqlo (-23.0%) experienced significant declines.
Beauty Sector Stabilizing: While still negative, the cosmetics category's decline (-19.7%) shows some moderation from the previous week's sharper drops, with average ticket sizes actually increasing.
Restaurant Sector Challenge: Fast Food & Restaurant's -21.4% decline represents one of the sharpest drops across all categories, potentially reflecting both post-holiday budget tightening and seasonal factors.
Digital Platform Adjustment: TikTok Shop's -5.3% decline suggests a normalization after strong holiday performance, though the decline is relatively modest compared to traditional retail channels.
The data this week shows a retail landscape still adjusting to post-holiday patterns, though some categories are beginning to show signs of stabilization. Specifically:
The varying performance across retailers within categories (particularly in Fast Fashion) suggests that consumer value-seeking behavior remains a significant factor.
The pronounced decline in restaurant spending, coupled with more moderate declines in grocery and wholesale clubs, might indicate a shift toward home-based consumption as consumers adjust their spending patterns for the new year.
As we move further into January, we'll be monitoring for signs of "new year" spending patterns, particularly in categories that might benefit from resolution-related purchases or winter sales events.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,
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