Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Jan. 4, 2025)
Dear Reader,
Welcome back to our Win the Week newsletter as we kick off 2025!
We hope you had a wonderful holiday season. After our brief hiatus during the holidays, we're excited to resume our regular updates with spending trends for the week ending January 4, 2025.
This week's data provides interesting insights into post-holiday consumer behavior.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
With another week of steep declines (similar to the last period in Dec.), general retail spending this week had near across-the-board dropoffs, with all brands seeing dropoffs in average ticket growth (ATG) while only one brand experienced positive growth in week-over-week (WoW) spend growth.
That brand was TEMU, with WoW spend growth up 25.3% while Amazon, Walmart, and Target had declines of 0.4%, 13.5%, and 36.5%, respectively.
With ATG, TEMU and Amazon were at the lower end of the declines, dropping by 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, while Walmart and Target had deeper losses, with ATG dropping by 6.4% and 16.3%, respectively.
Compiling that data, here’s how general retail spending changed last week when compared to the previous 7-day period:
Weekly spend growth: -9.8%
Average ticket growth: -6.0%
Fast Fashion Spending
Similar to general retail spending, fast fashion spending had near across-the-board negative growth this week, with all but one brand tracked experiencing significant dropoffs in spending. The “winner” in fast fashion spending this week was SHEIN, with ATG up 1.4% and WoW spend growth up by 27.1%.
All other brands experienced declines in both ATG and WoW spending growth. With ATG, Uniqlo and Zara were at the low end of the dips, with ATG falling 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively, while H&M had much greater losses in ATG, dropping 17.5%.
In terms of weekly spend growth, Uniqlo and H&M were both down 23.1% while Zara dropped by 34.3%.
Dialing out to the birds-eye view of fast fashion spending last week, and here’s how ATG and WoW spend growth fluctuated:
Weekly spend growth: -15.7%
Average ticket growth: -3.0%
Cosmetics Spending
Similar to general retail and fast fashion spending this week, cosmetics spending experienced remarkable negative growth, with ATG for Ulta and Sephora down 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively, while WoW spend growth dropped by 46.1% and 39.8%, respectively.
Sephora: -39.8% growth
Ulta: -46.1% growth
Category average: -19.5%
TikTok Shop Spending
Reversing last week’s negative growth, TikTok Shop spending this week increased, with:
Weekly spend growth: 12.2%
Average ticket growth: 2.8%
These increases are somewhat surprising in a greater retail spending landscape that has been suggesting wallets closing and shoppers more reluctant to spend in the aftermath of the holidays. This could bode well for TikTok Shop, making it a more mainstream e-commerce retailer moving deeper into 2025.
Other Retail Categories
Once again seeing more negative growth than gains this week, retail spending in other categories had one clear “winners” this week with increases in both ATG and WoW spending growth. That sector was Hardware & Home Supply, with AG up 2.6% and WoW spend growth up 14.2%.
Looking at ATG, all other categories experienced negative growth this week, with Wholesale Clubs at the lower end of the losses (ATG down 2.1%) while Discount Stores, Grocery Stores, and Fast Food & Restaurants had deeper declines of 5.3%, 7.7%, and 8.1%, respectively.
Here’s how weekly spend growth changed this week across various other retail categories:
Grocery spend growth: -12.9%
Wholesale Club spend growth: 5.7%
Discount Store spend growth: -21.3%
Hardware & Home Supply growth: 14.2%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
Evaluating this week’s retail transaction data in the context recent consumer behaviors and retail intelligence, some subtler insights begin to come to light, including:
Post-Holiday Adjustment: The broad-based declines across most retail categories reflect typical post-holiday shopping patterns. General Retail's -9.8% decline and significant drops in cosmetics spending (-19.5% category average) showcase this seasonal adjustment.
Digital Platform Resilience: TikTok Shop's continued growth (12.2%) stands out against the general retail decline, suggesting sustained engagement with digital shopping platforms even after the holiday rush.
Mixed Essential Services: While Grocery shows a significant decline (-12.9%), possibly due to normalization after holiday entertaining, Wholesale Clubs (5.7%) and Fast Food & Restaurant (0.5%) maintained positive growth.
Home Improvement Surge: The strong performance in Hardware & Home Supply (14.2%) might indicate consumers shifting focus to home projects in the new year.
Target Impact: The significant decline in Target's performance (-36.5%) appears particularly steep even for post-holiday adjustments, suggesting possible inventory or promotional strategy effects.
The data this week clearly shows the expected post-holiday spending correction, with some interesting exceptions.
The strong performance of TikTok Shop and Hardware & Home Supply categories suggests that while general gift-giving purchases have declined, consumers are redirecting spending to specific areas of interest.
Fast Fashion's decline (-15.7%) appears more moderate than some other retail categories, with SHEIN notably bucking the trend with 27.1% growth, suggesting continued consumer interest in value-oriented fashion options.
The dramatic declines in beauty retail (-39.8% at Sephora, -46.1% at Ulta) likely reflect both the post-holiday slowdown and the comparison to strong pre-holiday sales in December.
As we move further into 2025, we'll be watching to see how these trends evolve and whether they signal any broader shifts in consumer behavior beyond typical seasonal patterns.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,
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