Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Oct. 19, 2024)
Dear Reader,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending October 19, 2024. This week's data reveals the aftermath of the recent Amazon Prime Day event (October 8th and 9th) and provides insights into shifting consumer behaviors.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
Snapping back dramatically after last week’s remarkable growth, general retail spending this week had some steep dropoffs in both average ticket growth (ATG) and week-over-week (WoW) spend growth, with Amazon and Target experiencing declines while Temu and Walmart had some mild upticks.
Specifically, when compared to general retail spending last week, ATG for Target and Amazon declined by about 3.7% and 14.5%, respectively. In contrast, average ticket growth for Walmart and Temu this week was up roughly 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.
In terms of WoW spend growth, Amazon and Target had sizeable dropoffs of roughly 7.8% and 23%, respectively, while Walmart and Temu saw upticks of about 1.7% and 8.7%, respectively.
Combining that data, here’s how general retail spending fluctuated last week:
Weekly spend growth: -13.6%
Average ticket growth: -8.2%
Fast Fashion Spending
Continuing last week’s gains, fast fashion spending increased this week, with both average ticket growth and weekly spend growth up. In fact, there was across-the-board growth for all brands last week, with ATG up 1.2% and 1.5% at Zara and H&M, respectively, while ATG at SHEIN and Uniqlo was even higher, coming in at about 2.2% and 4.7%, respectively.
Weekly spend growth experienced even more sizable jumps this week, with WoW spend growth for SHEIN and Zara up around 2.1% and 7.5%, respectively, while weekly spend growth at H&M and Uniqlo rose /by 12.6% and 18.9%, respectively.
Overall, that meant that fast fashion spending last week had:
Weekly spend growth: 6.9%
Average ticket growth: 1.1%
TikTok Shop Spending
Reversing last week’s gains, TikTok Shop spending declined this week, with:
Weekly spend growth: -1.8%
Average ticket growth: -0.3%
These declines halted a two-week period of growth for TikTok Shop spending, leading up to and coinciding with Amazon Prime Deal Days in early October. It remains to be seen if TikTok Shop spending will continue to drop off until Black Friday or if September’s zigzagging trend of upticks and backslides from week to week will resume.
Other Retail Categories
Showing more declines than increases this week, other categories in retail spending mostly experienced dropoffs, with consumers appearing to tighten their purse strings almost across the board.
In particular, average ticket growth this week declined for nearly every category tracked, with grocery and discount store spending falling by 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, while wholesale club and home supply spending fell by 1.2% and 4.1%, respectively. The only category to see upticks in average ticket growth this week was fast food and restaurant spending, with ATG rising by 0.8%.
Looking at WoW spend growth, here’s how spending shifted across other retail categories this week:
Grocery spend growth: -0.3%
Wholesale Club spend growth: 1.0%
Discount Store spend growth: -0.2%
Hardware & Home Supply spend growth: -4.1%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
Looking at this week’s retail transaction data through the wider lens of consumer intelligence from the past couple of months, we can continue to discover crucial insights and key trends associated with:
General Retail: The significant decline of 13.6% in weekly spend and 8.2% in average ticket size clearly reflects a post-Prime Day slump. This sharp downturn was expected following last week's Prime Day-driven surge of 14.5%.
Wholesale Clubs: A slight recovery to 1.0% growth after last week's dramatic -20.8% decline, indicating a potential return to normal shopping patterns post-Prime Day.
Fast Fashion: Interestingly, this category shows strong growth at 6.9%, up from last week's 2.2%. This could indicate a delayed effect from Prime Day purchases or a shift in consumer focus towards apparel as we move deeper into fall.
Discount & Grocery Stores: Both categories show minimal change, suggesting these essential shopping categories were less affected by the Prime Day event and its aftermath.
TikTok Shop: After last week's Prime Day-influenced growth of 8.6%, we see a modest decline of 1.8%, suggesting a normalization of spending on this platform.
Hardware & Home Supply: The 4.1% decline might indicate that consumers are pulling back on home improvement projects after potentially making major purchases during Prime Day.
This week's data clearly demonstrates the "hangover effect" following the Amazon Prime Day event. Specifically:
The sharp decline in General Retail spending was anticipated, as consumers likely front-loaded their purchases during the sales event. This pattern is typical after major shopping events and doesn't necessarily indicate a long-term downtrend.
The continued strong performance in Fast Fashion is noteworthy and could signify a shift in consumer priorities as we approach the holiday season. It may also suggest that apparel wasn't a primary focus during Prime Day, leading to sustained demand in the following week.
The stabilization in Wholesale Club spending and the minimal changes in Grocery and Discount Store categories indicate a return to more normal shopping patterns after the disruption caused by Prime Day.
As we move towards November, it will be crucial to monitor whether spending patterns continue to normalize or if we see early indicators of holiday shopping behavior. The mixed performance across categories suggests that consumers are being selective in their spending, which could have implications for the upcoming holiday retail season.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,
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