Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Oct. 5, 2024)
Dear Reader,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending October 5, 2024. This week's data shows significant shifts across various retail categories, with some notable increases in spending.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
Bouncing back radically after slight dips last week, general retail spending had near across-the-board increases in average ticket growth (ATG) and week-over-week (WoW), with only one brand experiencing a decline this week
Specifically, when compared to general retail spending last week, ATG rose sharply, with Temu and Target on the lower end of those upticks, seeing ATG rise by 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively, while Walmart and Amazon were on the higher end, with ATG rising by 4% and 12.4%, respectively.
In terms of WoW spend growth, Temu was the only brand to experience declines, with weekly spend growth dropping by 5.2%. In contrast, Target, Amazon, and Walmart all had increases in WoW spend growth, ranging from 0.3% for Target all the way up to 5.3% for Walmart.
Combining that data, here’s how general retail spending fluctuated last week:
Weekly spend growth: 4.5%
Average ticket growth: 7.8%
Fast Fashion Spending
Unlike general retail spending this week, fast fashion spending dropped this week, with both average ticket growth and weekly spend growth down. In particular, ATG for Zara this week rose by 4% while WoW spend growth climbed by nearly 3%.
Notably, however, all fast fashion brands individually had upticks in ATG this week, with SHEIN and H&M at the lower end with average ticket growth increases of 0.7% and 4.5%, respectively, while Uniqlo and Zara were at the upper end of this spectrum, with ATG upticks of about 5.1% and 18.3%, respectively.
Weekly spend growth was more of a mixed back, with SHEIN and Zara experiencing declines of roughly 0.6% and 4.3%, respectively, while H&M and Unilqo had upticks in WoW spend growth of 1.4% and 3.8%, respectively.
Overall, that meant that fast fashion spending last week had:
Weekly spend growth: -1.6%
Average ticket growth: -1.9%
Reversing some gains from mid to late September, fast fashion spending has started to show some dropoffs right before the crucial Amazon Prime Deal Days in early October.
TikTok Shop Spending
Continuing to shake things up, TikTok Shop had spending upticks this week, with:
Weekly spend growth: 1.9%
Average ticket growth: 3.9%
These increases are keeping up the pattern of upticks and backslides in TikTok Shop spending, reversing last week’s drops with some strong gains this week. If this spending pattern continues, it could mean that TikTok Shop spending declines, once again, next week. We’ll see what the data shows over the next seven days.
Other Retail Categories
Making some remarkable increases this week, other categories in retail spending had a mix of minor to moderate drops, which were largely offset by the wild upticks in some sectors.
In particular, average ticket growth this week for wholesale club spending and grocery spending rose substantially, increasing by 4.2% and 4.7%, respectively. In contrast, discount store spending dropped across the board, with ATG falling by roughly 2% while WoW spend growth declined by nearly 5%.
Looking at WoW spend growth, here’s how spending shifted across other retail categories this week:
Grocery spend growth: 5.4%
Wholesale Club spend growth: 23.9%
Discount Store spend growth: -4.7%
Hardware & Home Supply spend growth: 5.5%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
Putting this week’s retail transaction data in context with consumer intelligence from the past couple of months, we can continue to unearth key insights and emerging trends associated with:
General Retail: A significant turnaround with 4.5% growth, coupled with a 7.8% increase in average ticket size, suggests a robust uptick in consumer spending.
Wholesale Clubs: The dramatic 23.9% growth is the standout figure this week, potentially indicating a shift towards bulk buying or early holiday shopping preparations
Fast Fashion: There were slight declines in both spend and average ticket size, possibly due to seasonal transitions or shifting consumer priorities.
Discount Stores: This week’s reversal to negative growth at -4.7% contrasts with its recent positive performance.
Grocery: There was strong growth this week at 5.4%, continuing last week's positive trend and suggesting increased at-home consumption or potential stockpiling.
Hardware & Home Supply: This week maintained positive growth at 5.5%, indicating continued interest in home improvement projects.
This week's data paints a picture of significant shifts in consumer behavior. The strong performance in General Retail, Wholesale Club, and Grocery categories could be early indicators of holiday shopping preparations or a response to economic factors prompting bulk buying. Specifically:
The continued growth in Hardware & Home Supply spending suggests ongoing investment in home environments, which could be a lasting trend from changes in work and lifestyle patterns.
The decline in Discount Store spending, coupled with growth in other categories, might indicate a willingness among consumers to spend more freely in certain areas. However, the continued negative trend in Fast Food & Restaurant spending suggests some caution in discretionary out-of-home food expenses.
TikTok Shop's consistent positive growth, while modest, continues to highlight its emerging role in the retail landscape.
As we move deeper into October and closer to the holiday season, these trends provide valuable insights into consumer priorities and spending patterns. The significant growth in some categories could be an early signal of a potentially strong holiday shopping season, but it's important to monitor whether this trend sustains in the coming weeks.
Additional Note: As we analyze these trends, it's important to note that the next Amazon Prime Day event is scheduled for October 8-9, 2024. This upcoming sales event could significantly impact consumer spending patterns across various categories in the coming week. We'll be closely monitoring how this event affects our data and will provide detailed insights in our next newsletter. The Prime Day effect could potentially amplify or alter the trends we've observed this week, particularly in categories like General Retail, Electronics, and possibly even competitors' sales in response to Amazon's event.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,
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