What Transaction Data from 10/10 Amazon Prime Day Signals for Holiday Shopping & Spending

October 13, 2023, PORTLAND, Ore. — Amazon reported record-breaking sales over its latest Prime Day in October 2023, painting a sunny picture for retailers with optimism about the upcoming holiday shopping season. 

Nevertheless, this e-commerce giant’s rosy reporting on October Prime Day sales doesn’t tell the whole story, according to Facteus, a leading alternative data provider. 

In fact, the latest credit and debit card transaction data showed subdued sales for Amazon's competitors and the retail industry in general, forecasting a less-than-stellar outlook for retail holiday spending in 2023. 

What Alt Data Reveals About Prime Day, 2023 Holiday Spending

Retailers’ high hopes for strong sales and consumer spending to close out the year may be dashed, with recent Prime Day alt data sounding alarm bells for many in the retail sector.

Specifically, credit card transaction data from Facteus uncovers different trends for Amazon versus other retailers: 

• Amazon consumer spending: The average spend per customer during the 2023 October Prime Day Event was $144.53. That represents a ~2% increase from the 2022 consumer shopping data.

• Consumer spending with other retailers: Unlike Amazon, other retailers running competing discounts saw a ~1% decline in sales, when compared to the previous year.

Adjusting expectations and shifting gears, some retailers looking to stay afloat may pivot to risker alternatives to boost end-of-year sales, like chancy promotions that threaten to eat away at the bottom line. 

With that and the latest alt data insights:

• The divide between successful vs. struggling retailers could get even wider.

• Prime Days, both in the summer (July) and the fall (October), are on track to become nearly as monumental in the retail sector as Black Friday.

• More major retailers are hopping on the Prime Day bandwagon, with Macy’s and Walmart both rolling out their own deal days to compete with Amazon Prime.

• More retailers are raising concerns about the potential for lackluster end-of-year sales and a bleak closeout to 2023.

• In addition to weaker sales, some retailers are seeing significant shifts in consumer behaviors too. That includes retail giants like Old Navy, Home Depot, Lowes, and Macy.

Tougher Holiday Shopping Season for Smaller Retailers?

Entering the 2023 holiday spending season, both Amazon and Walmart are on solid footing, with each discount retailer having its own multi-million-member customer base to support sales. With inflation looming strong over the upcoming shopping season, these retailers will likely stand out among price-conscious shoppers.

To compete this year, smaller retailers may end up facing new challenges and risks, including (but not limited to): 

• Price wars

• Increased markdowns and steeper discounts chipping away at profits

• A bigger reliance on promotions than the retail industry titans

Despite these challenges, there is a silver lining for big and smaller retailers alike, and that could include: 

• More balanced inventories
  

• More predictability in inventory flux
  

• A reduced need to offload surplus goods

As retailers roll out their holiday displays and gear up for in-person and online sales, many are fine-tuning their expectations, inventories, and forecasts in light of these alt data insights from one of the newest shopping holidays to hit the scene. 

UPDATE: Our transaction data insights about Prime Day have been picked up by major news outlets. So, you can now also read this story on the Washington Post and other prominent news sites.

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