Win the Week™ Retail Newsletter (Oct. 26, 2024)
Dear Reader,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Win the Week newsletter, covering consumer spending trends for the week ending October 26, 2024. This week's data continues to reveal the aftermath of the early October Amazon Prime Day event, providing insights into evolving consumer behaviors.
Let's dive into the numbers and analyze the most recent retail spending trends and consumer shopping behaviors.
The latest highlights are featured below.
General Retail Spending
Continuing the drop-offs kicked off last week, general retail spending this week declined once again, with both average ticket growth (ATG) and week-over-week (WoW) spend growth down and nearly all brands experiencing losses.
Specifically, when compared to general retail spending last week, the sole winner in retail spending for ATG was Temu, with average ticket growth up 1.8% for an average ticket of $63.76 over the last 7 days. In contrast, Target, Walmart, and Amazon all experienced declines in average ticket growth, with drops of 0.7%, 1.8%, and 3.4%, respectively.
In terms of WoW spend growth, all brands experienced declines, with Target and Walmart on the lower end of these drop-offs, seeing weekly spend growth fall by 0.8% and 2.4%, respectively, while Amazon and Temu were at the upper end of these loses, with WoW spend growth dropping by 4% and 5.1%, respectively.
Combining that data, here’s how general retail spending fluctuated last week:
Weekly spend growth: -3.1%
Average ticket growth: -3.1%
Fast Fashion Spending
Reversing last week’s gains while paralleling this week's trends in general retail shopping, fast fashion spending decreased over the last 7 days, with both average ticket growth and weekly spend growth down when compared to the prior week.
Looking at average ticket growth, only two brands — Zara and SHEIN — had upticks this week of 0.9% and 1%, respectively. H&M and Uniqlo, however, saw losses in ATG this week of roughly 1% and 3.8%, respectively.
Pivoting to weekly spend growth, all brands experienced losses this week, with Zara and Uniqlo at the low end of these dips (4.1% and 10.9%, respectively) while H&M and SHEIN were at the higher end of the losses (13.9% and 15.3%, respectively).
Overall, that meant that fast fashion spending last week had:
Weekly spend growth: -6.8%
Average ticket growth: -1.4%
TikTok Shop Spending
Unlike general retail and fast fashion spending, TikTok Shop spending increased last week, with:
Weekly spend growth: 0.1%
Average ticket growth: 1.2%
While more subtle, the upticks this week in both ATG and WoW spend growth continue the months-long pattern of zigzagging growth in TikTok Shop spending, with positive growth one week, followed by negative growth the next, then back to positive, then negative, and so on. If this pattern continues, the expectation is that next week's retail transaction deta for TikTok Shop should dip again (quick update here — that's exactly what occurred, with bigger declines in TikTok Shop spending next week).
Other Retail Categories
Somewhat echoing last week's data, this week, other retail categories continues to see mostly declines in spending.
In terms of average ticket growth, the winners with positive ATG were Hardware and Home Supply, with ATG up 0.2%, and Wholesale Clubs, with ATG up 1.6%. In contrast, average ticket growth at Grocery Stores, Fast Food and Restaurants, and Discount Stores were down 0.3%, 1.7%, and 2.4%, respectively.
Looking at WoW spend growth, here’s how spending shifted across other retail categories this week:
Fast Food & Restaurant spend growth: -1.7%
Grocery spend growth: -0.8%
Wholesale Club spend growth: 3.0%
Discount Store spend growth: -3.0%
Hardware & Home Supply growth: -2.3%
Key Takeaways & Comparisons
Examining this week’s retail spending data in the context of recent consumer intelligence spanning the past couple of months, some eye-opening insights and fascinating trends start to come to light:
General Retail: The continuing declines of 3.1% in both weekly spend and average ticket size continue to reflect a post-Prime Day slump, with signals that it could be waning as consumers get more distance from October Prime Day spending.
Wholesale Clubs: Picking up even more after last week's, slight recovery, Wholesale Club spending increased even more this week, with ATG up 1.6% and WoW spend growth up 3%. This continues to point to returning normalcy in post-Prime Day shopping patterns.
Fast Fashion: Notably, this category had dips this week of -6.8%, after strong growth of 6.9% last week. This could indicate consumer focus shifting away from apparel as fall turns into winter.
TikTok Shop: Continuing to highlight the normalization of spending on this platform, TikTok Shop spending grew very modestly this week, up 0.1% following last week's decline of 1.8%.
Hardware & Home Supply: The 2.3% decline, on the heels of last week's declines, could suggest that consumers have paused home improvement projects moving into the holiday season.
This week's data continues to suggest a residual "hangover effect" in the wake of the October Amazon Prime Day event, potentially indicating:
Consumers are front-loading their purchases, taking advantage of available sales and tightening their wallets outside these events.
Shoppers’ priorities are shifting as we approach the holiday season.
Normal shopping patterns are settling back in after the disruption from the Prime Day Event.
With November right around the corner, it will be essential to monitor the degree to which spending patterns continue to normalize and when the first indicators of holiday shopping behavior pop up. The continued mixed performance across several categories makes a stronger case for more selective consumer spending, which could be an omen for the upcoming holiday retail season.
Remember, Facteus analyzes over $3.1 trillion in consumer spending from more than 120 million individual consumers, providing comprehensive insights across various industries.
If you have any questions or would like to explore how Facteus' data can support your business decisions, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,