Clothing and clothing access. stores
Total Sector Spending
Overall spending trends across an industry sector
What's the story behind the data?
Apparel is discretionary, promotional, and bifurcating by price point. December surged +17.5% on holiday gifting, then crashed to -4% in February. August hit +6.5% on back-to-school before softening to +2.5% in September. The category swings violently with promotional windows—consumers wait for sales, don’t pay full price.
Etsy dominates at 32% share (marketplace aggregation effect—thousands of sellers under one transaction). Shein holds 16% with $38 AOV, proving ultra-fast fashion wins on price despite quality concerns. Lululemon commands $105-$155 AOV (premium athletic), while Anthropologie peaks at $135-$170 (lifestyle premium). Burlington ($50-55 AOV) and Old Navy ($50-65 AOV) compete in value tier. The middle is fragmented—DSW at 7-10% share ($70-85 AOV for shoes) is the only mid-tier player with scale.
Gen X (+5.5%) drives the category—ages 40-55 buying for themselves and kids. Millennials (+4.2%) follow. Baby Boomers (-1.3%) are negative, likely shifting spend to experiences over apparel. Gen Z (+0.8%) barely registers despite reputation as fashion-obsessed—they have transaction volume on Shein but lack spending power. Mid-income brackets ($50-$125K) at +2.9% to +3.6% fuel growth. Lowest income (+1.9%) and highest income (+1.8-2.5%) show caution.
Strategic Takeaways by Audience
FP&A / Strategy Teams
- Plan inventory around 3 windows: holiday (Dec), back-to-school (Aug), spring refresh (Apr-May) — February, March, June, September are dead months. Stock lean outside peak periods or burn cash on markdowns.
- Gen X (+5.5%) is your revenue driver — ages 40-55 buying for themselves, kids, and work wardrobes. Millennials (+4.2%) add volume. Boomers (-1.3%) exited the category. Shift assortments and marketing accordingly.
- Premium ($135-170 AOV) and ultra-value ($38-50 AOV) both work; mid-tier dies — Anthropologie and Lululemon defend margin. Shein, Burlington, Old Navy win on price. If you’re positioned between $70-100 AOV without differentiation, you’re getting squeezed.
- Promotional intensity defines category health — December’s +17.5% came from Black Friday/Cyber Monday depth. August’s +6.5% followed aggressive back-to-school discounts. Full-price selling is dead except for premium brands with cult followings.
- Marketplace aggregation (Etsy 32%) vs. branded retail (everyone else) — Etsy’s dominance reflects consumer shift to personalized, unique items. Traditional retailers compete on brand differentiation, not just price and selection.
- Mid-income ($50-$125K at +2.9% to +3.6%) drives volume — lowest and highest income show restraint. Target merchandising to middle-class wardrobing needs (work, casual, kids) not aspirational luxury.
Marketing and Brand Teams
- Concentrate spend in Q4 (holiday) and August (back-to-school) — December and August deliver disproportionate revenue. Shoulder months (Feb, Mar, Jun, Sep) waste budget. Go dark or minimal outside peak windows.
- Gen X is under-marketed and over-delivers — +5.5% from ages 40-55 while everyone chases Gen Z (+0.8%). Build campaigns around Gen X life stage: professional wardrobes, kids’ clothes, comfort + style.
- Premium brands can avoid promotional treadmill — Lululemon ($105-155 AOV) and Anthropologie ($135-170 AOV) maintain pricing power. If you’re premium-positioned with loyal customers, resist constant discounting that trains customers to wait.
- Value positioning requires scale or niche — Shein wins at $38 AOV with massive SKU breadth and viral marketing. Burlington and Old Navy win with broad assortments and store density. Small players in value tier get crushed unless hyper-specialized.
- Gifting vs. self-purchase change messaging — December’s +17.5% is gift-driven; August’s +6.5% is utilitarian (back-to-school). Tailor creative to purchase occasion—emotional storytelling for holidays, practical value for back-to-school.
Investors
- Overweight premium athletic (Lululemon) and marketplaces (Etsy) — Lululemon’s $105-155 AOV with cult following defends margin in promotional category. Etsy’s 32% share aggregates long tail of sellers with minimal inventory risk.
- Underweight mid-tier department stores and specialty without differentiation — DSW at 7-10% share in mid-tier ($70-85 AOV) is largest mid-tier player and still marginal. Brands without premium positioning or value scale get squeezed.
- Play seasonal momentum — December and August deliver. Retail-heavy exposure should overweight Q4 and Q3, underweight Q1 and Q2. Promotional windows create predictable revenue pops.
- Shein’s $38 AOV is unsustainable margin but unstoppable volume — 16% share at rock-bottom pricing. Fast fashion model prints money on volume but faces regulatory risk (labor, tariffs, sustainability). High risk, high reward.
- Gen X spending (+5.5%) supports apparel recovery — peak earning years, buying for multiple use cases. Brands with Gen X appeal (premium casual, professional, athletic) outperform youth-focused brands.
Policy Makers
- Apparel tariffs hit ultra-value hardest — Shein’s $38 AOV leaves no margin for tariff absorption. Price increases push lowest-income consumers ($50K at +1.9%) out of category. Tariff policy directly impacts affordability for working families.
- Fast fashion regulation (labor, sustainability) would reshape category — Shein’s 16% share built on ultra-low costs. Stricter labor or environmental standards would compress margins and force price increases or exit.
- Gen X spending strength (+5.5%) reflects employment stability — peak working years driving apparel purchases for professional and family needs. Labor market weakness would hit this cohort and cascade to category.
- Income bifurcation visible in apparel — mid-income ($50-$125K) drives growth; lowest and highest show caution. Apparel spending reflects disposable income after fixed costs—proxy for middle-class financial health.
Top Brands by Market Share
Leading brands ranked by market share within sector
Trends + Insights
Holiday gifting delivers 40%+ of annual volatility December’s +17.5% spike followed by January-February crash (-2.5% to -4%) shows category concentrated in Q4. Retailers make or break the year on holiday execution. Miss December and you’re chasing recovery all year.
Gen X is apparel’s secret weapon +5.5% from ages 40-55 drives the category. They’re buying for themselves (professional wardrobes, athleisure), kids (back-to-school), and gifting. Stop chasing Gen Z (+0.8% with no money) and build assortments for Gen X life stage.
Premium and ultra-value both work; mid-tier dies Lululemon ($105-$155 AOV) and Anthropologie ($135-$170 AOV) defend pricing power. Shein ($38 AOV), Burlington ($50-55 AOV), and Old Navy ($50-65 AOV) win on value. Brands positioned $70-100 AOV without clear differentiation get squeezed by both ends.
Etsy’s 32% share reflects marketplace dominance Consumers want unique, personalized items—not mass-produced sameness. Etsy aggregates thousands of sellers under one transaction, capturing share traditional retailers can’t match. Personalization and curation beat scale in certain segments.
Shein’s $38 AOV is tariff ground zero 16% share at ultra-low pricing means zero margin for cost absorption. Tariff increases or labor regulation would force price hikes or market exit. Most exposed brand to trade policy changes.
Back-to-school rivals holiday in revenue concentration August’s +6.5% approaches holiday-level surge. Families buying for multiple kids in compressed timeframe create promotional opportunity. Retailers who execute August well add 10-15% to annual revenue.
Boomers exited the category -1.3% from 60+ age group signals shift from apparel to experiences (travel, dining, entertainment). Brands dependent on Boomer spending (traditional department stores, classic American brands) face structural headwind.
Top Brands by AOV
Leading brands ranked by average order value within sector
This macro sector analysis provides detailed insights into economic trends and consumer behavior patterns. The visualizations below are derived from real-world transaction data and economic indicators.
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Sector Spending by Income Bracket
Industry sector spending patterns by household income level
Sector Spending by Generation
Industry sector spending patterns by generational cohort
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