US Macroeconomic Spend Insights
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Consumer Confidence
Consumer spend is the leading indicator of economic health.
Keep your finger on the pulse of change in your industry with these insights – sourced from live data across the U.S.
Total Consumer Spending
Year-over-year growth in retail sales excluding auto
Durable vs Non-Durable Goods
Comparison of durable and non-durable goods performance
What's the story behind the data?
The U.S. macroeconomic picture reveals a complex and shifting landscape. Consumer spending is marked by volatility across months, shaped by seasonality, inflation expectations, and regional and demographic nuance. Facteus transaction data provides a real-time lens into these trends.
April 2025 emerged as a high point, with strong rebounds in durables and core retail categories. February was the most muted, likely reflecting seasonal pullback. Leading the charge in transaction volume are Gen Z and eCommerce channels, though it’s critical to contextualize this activity: Gen Z has lower per capita spending power compared to older cohorts (per Deloitte and Pew Research), so growth rates should be interpreted in light of smaller wallet sizes.
Rather than signaling a single direction, the data reveals a consumer economy in motion — adapting in real time, reacting to both constraint and opportunity.
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Strategic Takeaways:
Keep Reading
For FP&A and Retail Strategy
- Budget dynamically — the data reveals short-cycle volatility that static forecasts will miss.
- Prioritize campaign timing and inventory cycles around peak months like April.
- Tailor promotions toward younger and digital-first shoppers, especially Gen Z — while recognizing their comparatively lower absolute spend potential.
- Consider bundling strategies that blend essential and discretionary goods to smooth demand.
- Use AOV (Average Order Value) trends as pricing proxies — rising AOV often reflects product mix shifts and perceived value pricing more than simple inflation.
- Explore mid-quarter re-forecasting, especially when March or September volatility precedes seasonal booms.
For Investors
- Avoid overreacting to monthly swings — Q2 data reveals investable consumer momentum.
- Focus on brands with exposure to health, nonstore, and food service segments.
- Monitor Gen Z brand engagement and regional strength in the Midwest and West as potential growth signals — while weighing these against spending power data from sources like McKinsey and Census CPS.
- Use Facteus data as a nowcasting tool — complementing traditional sources like BEA, MARTS, and earnings calls.
For Policymakers
- Support Northeast markets, Gen X consumers, and high-income sensitivity — where pullbacks are more visible.
- Track durable goods volatility as a signal for household confidence and inflation expectations.
- Recognize dynamic inequality in spending — policies must stay nimble and segmented.
- Invest in youth employment programs — Gen Z is driving transaction growth, but remains vulnerable if labor markets tighten.
- Consider targeted regional stimulus, especially in persistently soft markets like the Northeast.
For Marketers & Advertisers
- Gen Z is a behavioral signal, not just a buyer segment — prioritize creative that resonates with their urgency and digital preferences, but align spend with segments that show both growth and capacity.
- High volatility = high opportunity — experiment with timing-based campaigns, particularly around durable goods and seasonal peaks.
- Avoid one-size-fits-all regional strategies — the Northeast continues to underperform, while the Midwest and South are more resilient.
- Leverage AOV and frequency signals to guide messaging — look beyond raw basket size.
- Target campaign spikes around purchase windows, not just awareness — especially for episodic categories like electronics or furniture.
The visualizations on this page are derived from real world consumer credit and debit card transaction data. They give unprecedented visibility into the key drivers of company growth behind the scenes, often not reported on earnings calls or public reports.
2025 Consumer Spending Demographics
Combined view of consumer spending across generation, income, and region
Total Sector Spending
1. What We See in the Data
Total Consumer Spending
- Jan (+4.7%) and Apr (+6.6%) posted the strongest YoY growth.
- Feb (–1.9%) showed the sharpest contraction; Jun was flat (–0.03%).
- Spending patterns reveal a selective but active
Durables vs. Non-Durables
- Durables: Spiked in Dec and Apr (+9%), fell in Feb and Jun (–5%, –2%).
- Non-Durables: Steady growth, peaking in Apr (+5%), with no material YoY declines.
- AOV trends suggest higher-value purchases were clustered in known promotional windows (e.g., tax season).
2. Demographics & Regional Trends
Standout Segments
- Gen Z: +5.5% YoY growth in transaction volume. However, external sources (e.g., Pew Research) confirm Gen Z controls less disposable income than older cohorts — brands should interpret growth as engagement potential, not immediate spend scale.
- Millennials and Boomers: Slightly positive growth (+0.5–0.6%).
Regional Notes
- Midwest and West: Slightly positive growth.
- Northeast: Persistent contraction (–0.74%), consistent across sectors.
Pullback Segments
- Gen X: –2.5%, the most contractionary cohort.
- High Earners ($125K+): –0.9% to –1.2%, likely reflecting discretionary caution.
Conclusion: Young and online consumers are driving growth in volume, while older, higher-income segments control the bulk of spend. Real strategy requires bridging both behaviors.
3. Sector Deep Dive (Jan–Jun 2025)
Sector
Notes
Furniture & Home
Surged +9.4% in Mar; AOV strength held through Apr–Jun (~6%). Gen Z and Boomers showed the highest AOV growth. Pullback seen among high-income shoppers. Strong regional performance in West/Midwest.
Electronics & Appliances
+11.7% in Apr, then –13.9% in May. Gen Z drove the April spike in transaction volume, but AOV was dominated by Apple. Gen X and high-income shoppers pulled back sharply.
Health & Personal Care
Strong growth in Q2 (up to +11.2%). Gen Z and <$100K shoppers led the way. Amazon continues to grow AOV against CVS/Walgreens.
Food Services & Restaurants
Q2 acceleration (+6–7%). Gen Z and Boomers led. AOV trends rose fastest among <$75K and $100–$125K cohorts. Starbucks showed the fastest AOV rise among QSR brands.
Nonstore Retail
Consistent strength: +8.6% (Apr), +3.7% (May), +2% (Jun). Amazon leads in both AOV and share. <$100K shoppers drove growth, especially in Q2.
Sporting Goods
Recovery in Apr (+4.5%) after weak Q1. Gen X was the only growth driver. Income brackets >$50K all saw AOV declines.
Gas Stations
–6% sector-wide; all income brackets contracted. AOV flat. Chevron and Costco dominate share.
Food & Beverage Stores
Strong Apr (+8%), steady May. Walmart leads share. Boomers and Gen Z show AOV growth. High-income pullback persists.
General Merchandise
Dec 2024 surge (+8.3%) followed by stable mid-single-digit growth. Gen X and Gen Z led Q2 growth. Target and Costco led in AOV lift.
Interpretation: Consumers are spending selectively — large purchases are clustered; everyday essentials and digital channels show resilience. AOV is the best signal for category pricing shifts.
4. Policy & Market Context Alignment
- Fed held rates through June, citing uneven inflation trends (FOMC minutes, June 2025)
- Tariffs remain on several categories, distorting import-heavy segments (notably electronics, apparel)
- Retail earnings were mixed — luxury and home goods beat; discretionary apparel missed (WSJ Retail Roundup, June 2025)
- Inflation softened in Apr–May (CPI YoY fell from 3.5% to 3.2%), helping drive April’s spending spike (gov)
Facteus data picks up these directional shifts ahead of official releases, offering investors and strategists a timely read on consumer behavior.
Conclusion: A More Nuanced Consumer Economy
The Facteus dataset reveals a U.S. consumer in constant recalibration. Durables swing with promotional and inflation cycles. Younger consumers engage consistently, but real spend remains with older, wealthier shoppers. Digital-first, mid-income households are driving relative strength.
By pairing real-time AOV and transaction data with publicly available macro indicators, this report offers a practical guide to navigating near-term consumer behavior — for planners, investors, and policymakers alike.
Total Sector Spending
| Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales ex. Auto | 4.74% | -1.91% | 0.65% | 6.56% | 2.45% | -0.03% |
| Building mat. and garden equip. and supplies dealers | 0.17% | -6.12% | 0.31% | 3.03% | 3.25% | -6.08% |
| Clothing and clothing access. stores | -3.28% | -2.05% | 0.46% | 3.88% | 2.27% | 0.35% |
| Electronics and appliance stores | -5.71% | -4.82% | -0.80% | 11.68% | -13.93% | -1.76% |
| Food and beverage stores | 3.83% | -0.33% | -2.34% | 8.07% | 3.15% | -0.58% |
| Food services and drinking places | 4.00% | -0.91% | 1.79% | 6.45% | 7.73% | 0.47% |
| Furniture and home furnishings stores | 4.21% | -2.50% | 9.40% | 6.06% | 5.79% | 6.06% |
| Gasoline stations | 1.21% | -4.69% | -6.42% | -2.37% | -6.16% | -4.37% |
| General merchandise stores | 2.73% | 0.02% | 0.87% | 4.85% | 3.13% | 1.90% |
| Health and personal care stores | 11.47% | -2.70% | 1.66% | 11.26% | 6.36% | 3.85% |
| Miscellaneous store retailers | 4.83% | 2.22% | 7.15% | 6.93% | -6.48% | -5.98% |
| Nonstore retailers | 11.72% | -1.66% | 5.70% | 8.62% | 3.74% | 1.95% |
| Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores | -2.69% | -6.23% | -4.08% | 4.43% | 1.12% | -0.26% |