Food and beverage stores
Total Sector Spending
Overall spending trends across an industry sector
What's the story behind the data?
Grocery is stable, necessity-driven, and dominated by Walmart’s 60% share. Unlike discretionary categories that swing wildly, food spending stays resilient: November and April both peaked at +9.5% (holiday meals and spring restocking), with August maintaining momentum at +5.8% before settling to +3% in September. Only February dipped negative (-1%). Consumers cut discretionary before cutting groceries.
Walmart’s 60-62% share is rock-solid and unmoving for two years. Kroger (9%), Publix (8%), H-E-B (7%), and a cluster of regional/specialty players (Aldi, Trader Joe’s, Safeway at 5% each) split what’s left. Market share is frozen—nobody’s gaining or losing meaningfully. AOVs cluster tightly: $52-55 for most chains (Walmart, H-E-B, Trader Joe’s, Safeway), with Kroger and Aldi slightly lower ($42-44) and Publix at $35-37 reflecting smaller basket trips.
Millennials (+11%) dominate the category—ages 28-43 buying for families and driving volume. High earners ($125K+ at +4.8% and +3.5%) also strong, likely trading up to organic/premium within grocery. Gen X (+3%) and Boomers (+3.5%) steady. Gen Z (nearly flat at +0.1%) barely registers—they’re eating out or buying minimal groceries. Lower-income brackets ($50-75K at +1.5%, under $50K at +2.2%) hold up despite budget pressure, proving groceries are non-discretionary.
Implications by Audience
FP&A / Strategy Teams
- Grocery delivers consistent mid-single-digit growth — peaks at +9.5% (Nov, Apr) with summer strength (+5.8% Aug). Unlike electronics (-19% worst month) or apparel’s violent swings, grocery provides predictable revenue base.
- Millennials (+11%) are your revenue engine — ages 28-43 with families shop most frequently and drive largest baskets. Assortment, merchandising, and promotions should prioritize this cohort’s preferences (organic, convenient, family-sized).
- Walmart’s 60% share is unbreakable without differentiation — regional density (Publix Florida, H-E-B Texas, Safeway West), specialty positioning (Trader Joe’s, Aldi value), or premium focus are only viable strategies against Walmart’s scale.
- High-income spending ($125K+ at +4.8%/+3.5%) signals premium opportunity — affluent households trading up within grocery (organic, prepared foods, specialty items). Private label premium and fresh/prepared foods capture this wallet.
- AOV similarity ($50-55) across chains means trip frequency drives volume — since basket sizes are nearly identical, winning means capturing more trips per customer. Loyalty programs, convenience (pickup/delivery), and location density matter more than basket optimization.
- Summer sustained strength (Aug +5.8%) defies typical seasonal patterns — traditional grocery planning assumes Q3 softness. Data shows sustained momentum through August before modest September softening (+3%). Adjust seasonal staffing and inventory assumptions.
Marketing and Brand Teams
- Millennial families (+11%) are your target — ages 28-43 shopping for households. Messaging around convenience, health, family meals, and value resonates. Ignore Gen Z (+0.1%)—they’re not buying groceries at scale.
- Loyalty programs are defensive moats — when AOVs are identical and category is necessity-driven, winning = capturing frequency. Walmart+, Kroger Plus, Publix Club, H-E-B rewards drive repeat trips.
- High-income households ($125K+ at +4.8%/+3.5%) respond to premium positioning — organic, local, prepared foods, specialty items. Don’t race Walmart/Aldi to bottom on price—capture premium wallet with quality/convenience.
- Regional dominance beats national presence — Publix (Florida), H-E-B (Texas), Safeway (West) hold share through local density and brand loyalty. National expansion without density advantage is expensive and low-return.
- Omnichannel convenience is table stakes — pickup, delivery, and subscription models (Walmart+, Instacart) drive frequency among time-pressed Millennials. Chains without seamless digital integration lose trips.
Investors
- Walmart is the only scaled play — 60% share, stable for years, with omnichannel execution and pricing power. Regional grocers (Publix, H-E-B, Kroger) have density advantages in specific markets but lack Walmart’s national scale.
- Grocery is defensive with steady growth — category resilience (only -1% worst month) makes it recession-proof, with sustained mid-single-digit growth through Q3. Own for stability and consistent performance.
- Millennial spending (+11%) supports category health — prime family-buying years drive grocery volume. Unlike discretionary categories where Millennials are cautious, grocery benefits from household formation and kids.
- High-income strength ($125K+ at +4.8%/+3.5%) supports premium players — Whole Foods, Sprouts, specialty chains benefit from affluent trade-up. Discount grocers (Aldi) face headwind if high earners keep spending.
- Loyalty/subscription models create sticky revenue — Walmart+ and grocer loyalty programs reduce churn and increase frequency. Chains with strong programs defend share; those without slowly lose trips.
- August strength (5.8%) signals Q3 resilience — traditional grocery planning assumes summer softness, but data shows sustained momentum. Adjust quarterly estimates accordingly.
Policy Makers
- Grocery resilience proves necessity spending holds — lowest-income bracket ($50K at +2.2%) still spending despite budget strain. Grocery is last thing consumers cut, unlike discretionary.
- Food inflation concerns persist despite stable spending — AOVs flat at $50-55 but inflation means fewer items per basket. Real purchasing power declining even as nominal spending holds.
- Walmart’s 60% dominance has competition implications — unprecedented market concentration in essential goods. Pricing power and supplier leverage raise antitrust considerations.
- Regional grocers provide alternative to Walmart consolidation — Publix, H-E-B, Kroger maintain competition in specific markets. Policies supporting regional chains prevent total Walmart monopoly.
Top Brands by Market Share
Leading brands ranked by market share within sector
Trends + Insights
Walmart’s 60% share is permanent Rock-solid for 2+ years. Scale advantages (supply chain, pricing, omnichannel) create unbreakable moat. Regional players survive through local density; national competitors can’t challenge.
Millennials drive the category +11% from ages 28-43 with families. Peak grocery-buying years. They shop most frequently, buy largest baskets, and demand convenience (pickup/delivery). Win Millennials or lose the category.
High earners trading up, not down $125K+ at +4.8%/+3.5% signals premium opportunity. Despite inflation, affluent households buy organic, prepared foods, specialty items. Discount positioning (Aldi, Walmart value) isn’t winning this wallet.
AOV similarity = frequency war All chains cluster $50-55 basket size. Since baskets are identical, winning = capturing more trips. Loyalty programs, location density, and digital convenience drive frequency.
November and April peaks are predictable +9.5% both months (holiday meal prep, spring restocking). Unlike discretionary retail with promotional chaos, grocery peaks are seasonal and plannable. Inventory and staffing should concentrate here.
Summer sustained strength defies seasonal assumptions August +5.8% challenges traditional Q3 softness expectations. Grilling season, back-to-school lunch prep, and sustained household formation drive stronger-than-expected summer performance.
Gen Z absent from category +0.1% growth from ages 18-27. They’re eating out, using DoorDash, or buying minimal groceries. Not yet forming households. Future growth potential but current revenue irrelevant.
Regional density beats national presence Publix (Florida 8% share), H-E-B (Texas 7% share) prove local dominance with 5-10 stores per metro outperforms thin national footprint. Grocery is hyperlocal business—convenience wins.
Top Brands by AOV
Leading brands ranked by average order value within sector
This macro sector analysis provides detailed insights into economic trends and consumer behavior patterns. The visualizations below are derived from real-world transaction data and economic indicators.
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Sector Spending by Income Bracket
Industry sector spending patterns by household income level
Sector Spending by Generation
Industry sector spending patterns by generational cohort
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