Food services and drinking places
Total Sector Spending
Overall spending trends across an industry sector
What's the story behind the data?
Restaurants are resilient, experience-driven, and split between value and premium with no middle. November spiked +12.3% on Thanksgiving and holiday dining, April hit +8.9%, and summer sustained momentum (July +6.8%, August +7%) before softening to +4.2% in September. Only February dipped negative (-1.8%). Consumers prioritize dining experiences even when cutting other discretionary spend.
McDonald’s owns 30-33% share (rock-solid for two years). Starbucks holds 16-18%, Chick-fil-A 14-15%, Dunkin’ 11-12%, Taco Bell 9-10%, Wendy’s 7-8%. Market share frozen—nobody gaining or losing meaningfully. AOV tells the real story: Chipotle commands $18-20 (premium fast-casual), Chick-fil-A $15-17, mid-tier at $13-15 (Taco Bell, Wendy’s, Starbucks), McDonald’s $11-12, and Dunkin’ $8-9 (value coffee/breakfast). The middle is compressed—you’re either premium ($15+) or value ($8-12).
Gen X (+10%) is the shock—ages 40-55 driving category growth despite being tapped out in other sectors. $50-75K income (+7.4%) and under $50K (+5.3%) also strong, while mid-to-high earners show restraint ($75-125K at +0.6% to +1.8%). Millennials barely register (+0.9%) despite reputation as dining-out generation. Gen Z (+5.9%) shows strength but on lower tickets. Boomers steady at +3.5%.
Strategic Takeaways by Audience
FP&A / Strategy Teams
- Gen X (+10%) is your category driver — ages 40-55 spending heavily on dining despite pulling back everywhere else. They’re time-starved, need convenience, and prioritize family dining experiences. Build around Gen X life stage.
- November (+12.3%) and summer (Jul +6.8%, Aug +7%) are peak windows — Thanksgiving/holiday season and sustained summer dining drive disproportionate revenue. Staff and inventory planning must accommodate these surges.
- $50-75K income (+7.4%) fuels volume growth — working-class households dining out more frequently. Value positioning and family meal deals capture this wallet. Under $50K also strong (+5.3%), suggesting dining remains affordable luxury.
- Premium ($18-20 AOV) and value ($8-12 AOV) both work; mid-tier struggles — Chipotle at $18-20 and McDonald’s at $11-12 both succeed. Brands positioned $13-15 without clear differentiation (Wendy’s declining share) get squeezed.
- McDonald’s 30-33% share is unbreakable without differentiation — scale advantages (unit density, supply chain, marketing) create moat. Regional players and premium concepts survive through positioning, not head-to-head competition.
- Millennials (+0.9%) are surprisingly weak — despite reputation as dining generation, ages 28-43 show minimal growth. Budget strain from housing costs and student loans forcing cutbacks. Gen X and Gen Z driving category instead.
Marketing and Brand Teams
- Target Gen X (+10%) aggressively — ages 40-55 are dining out most. Messaging around convenience (mobile ordering, drive-thru), family value (kids eat free, meal deals), and quality matters more than trendy/aspirational creative aimed at younger demos.
- $50-75K income (+7.4%) responds to value positioning — family meal deals, promotions, and loyalty programs drive frequency. McDonald’s, Taco Bell, Wendy’s win this bracket with accessible pricing and portion value.
- Premium brands (Chipotle $18-20, Chick-fil-A $15-17) can avoid promotional treadmill — cult followings and quality perception justify pricing power. Don’t train customers to wait for discounts.
- Summer sustained strength (Jul +6.8%, Aug +7%) extends dining season — traditional Q3 softness doesn’t apply. Maintain marketing spend through summer rather than going dark.
- Gen Z (+5.9%) offers frequency at lower tickets — they dine out often but spend less per visit (coffee, snacks, value items). Drive-thru convenience and mobile ordering capture this cohort.
Investors
- McDonald’s is the defensive play — 30-33% share, $11-12 AOV drives volume, global scale. Wins in all economic conditions through value positioning and unit density.
- Premium fast-casual (Chipotle, Chick-fil-A) defends margin — $15-20 AOV with loyal customers provides pricing power and traffic resilience. Gen X and higher-income spending supports premium tier.
- Gen X momentum (+10%) supports category recovery — peak earning years driving dining frequency despite budget strain elsewhere. Brands positioned for Gen X (family dining, convenience) outperform youth-focused concepts.
- Summer strength (Jul +6.8%, Aug +7%) challenges seasonal assumptions — traditional Q3 softness doesn’t materialize. Adjust quarterly estimates to reflect sustained summer dining.
- Mid-tier without differentiation faces pressure — Wendy’s share declining, Starbucks AOV compressing from $15 to $14. Brands positioned $13-15 without premium quality or value pricing get squeezed from both ends.
Policy Makers
- Dining resilience proves experience spending holds — lowest-income bracket (+5.3%) still dining out despite budget strain. Restaurants provide affordable social experiences when other discretionary spending cuts.
- Gen X dining surge (+10%) reflects time poverty — peak working years with family responsibilities drive convenience dining. Dual-income households need fast, affordable meal solutions.
- Lower-income strength ($50K at +5.3%, $50-75K at +7.4%) shows dining as priority — working families allocate limited discretionary budgets to dining experiences. Price increases could disproportionately impact this segment.
- Labor costs and minimum wage directly impact AOV — Chipotle’s $18-20 and Chick-fil-A’s $15-17 reflect higher labor costs in premium concepts. Policy changes affecting labor markets cascade to menu pricing.
Top Brands by Market Share
Leading brands ranked by market share within sector
Trends + Insights
Gen X (+10%) is the category surprise Ages 40-55 driving growth while cutting spending everywhere else. Time-starved dual-income families with kids prioritize convenience dining. They’re not splurging—they’re surviving. Brands built for Gen X life stage (family meals, drive-thru, mobile ordering) win.
McDonald’s 30-33% share is permanent Rock-solid for 2+ years. Scale advantages (14,000 U.S. locations, supply chain, marketing spend) create unbreakable moat. Regional players and premium concepts survive through differentiation, not challenging McDonald’s directly.
Premium and value both work; mid-tier dies Chipotle ($18-20 AOV) and McDonald’s ($11-12 AOV) both succeed. Brands positioned $13-15 without clear quality or value advantage (Wendy’s, mid-tier chains) get squeezed. Pick a lane—premium quality or volume value.
$50-75K income (+7.4%) drives volume growth Working-class households dining out frequently despite limited budgets. Value meals, promotions, and loyalty programs capture this segment. They’re choosing fast food over grocery meal prep for time savings.
Millennials (+0.9%) surprisingly weak Despite reputation as dining-out generation, ages 28-43 show minimal growth. Housing costs, student loans, and childcare expenses forcing cutbacks. Gen X and Gen Z driving category instead.
November (+12.3%) Thanksgiving surge dominates Thanksgiving week and holiday season create massive spike. QSR benefits from convenience (Thanksgiving Eve dinners, Black Friday meals). Plan staffing and inventory around this predictable surge.
Summer sustained strength defies seasonality July +6.8%, August +7% challenge traditional Q3 softness. Vacation travel, outdoor dining, and sustained social activity drive summer dining. Don’t cut marketing spend in Q3.
Chipotle’s $18-20 AOV proves premium pricing power 50-70% premium over McDonald’s sustained for years. Quality ingredients, customization, and brand loyalty justify pricing. Premium fast-casual with cult following can avoid promotional discounting.
Dunkin’ $8-9 AOV owns breakfast/coffee value Lowest AOV but 11-12% share. High-frequency, low-ticket strategy works in morning daypart. Coffee and breakfast sandwiches drive volume.
Top Brands by AOV
Leading brands ranked by average order value within sector
This macro sector analysis provides detailed insights into economic trends and consumer behavior patterns. The visualizations below are derived from real-world transaction data and economic indicators.
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Sector Spending by Income Bracket
Industry sector spending patterns by household income level
Sector Spending by Generation
Industry sector spending patterns by generational cohort
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