General merchandise stores
Total Sector Spending
Overall spending trends across an industry sector
What's the story behind the data?
General merchandise is warehouse club-dominated, and Target is bleeding share. December surged +11.6% on holiday shopping, April hit +6.0%, August +4.8%, but the category shows volatility (Feb -1.1%, May nearly flat +0.1%). Costco and Sam’s Club control 55-60% combined share—stable and unmoving. Target collapsed from 22% (December) to 16% by February and hasn’t recovered. The “affordable premium” positioning that worked for Target in 2019-2022 is dead. Consumers want bulk value (Costco/Sam’s) or treasure hunt discounts (TJ Maxx, Marshalls).
Gen X (+15.5%) drives the category—ages 40-55 stocking households at warehouse clubs and buying family essentials. Millennials strong at +5.5% (household formation, kids). Gen Z negative (-1.4%), Boomers barely positive (+0.6%). Under $50K income surprisingly strong (+4.8%)—warehouse clubs offer bulk value. But $50-75K negative (-2.1%), high earners pulling back ($150K+ at -3.1%). This bifurcation shows warehouse club membership value versus Target’s mid-tier squeeze.
AOV spread massive: Nordstrom $150-190 (premium apparel/home), Costco $110-130 (bulk purchases), mid-tier $55-80 (Sam’s, discount stores), Target lowest at $45-50. Target’s AOV collapse reflects smaller basket trips—consumers cherry-picking deals, not full shopping trips.
Implications by Audience
FP&A / Strategy Teams
- Gen X (+15.5%) is your entire growth engine — ages 40-55 with families buying bulk at warehouse clubs. They’re not shopping Target for discretionary—they’re filling carts at Costco/Sam’s for household essentials and multi-month stock-ups.
- Target’s share collapse (22% to 16%) is structural, not cyclical — lost 6 points in 2 months and hasn’t recovered. “Affordable premium” positioning crushed between warehouse club value and off-price treasure hunt (TJ Maxx, Marshalls). Mid-tier with no clear advantage loses.
- Costco/Sam’s 55-60% combined dominance is permanent — warehouse club membership + bulk value + private label quality = unbreakable moat. Traditional general merchandise retailers can’t compete on price per unit.
- December (+11.6%) and August (+4.8%) are peak windows — holiday gifting and back-to-school drive disproportionate revenue. Q4 makes or breaks the year. Plan inventory and promotions around these surges.
- Under $50K income (+4.8%) uses warehouse clubs for value — membership fees pay for themselves in bulk savings. Lower-income households maximize dollars per trip. But $50-75K negative (-2.1%) suggests middle-income squeeze—neither wealthy enough to ignore prices nor poor enough to prioritize bulk.
- High-income pullback ($150K+ at -3.1%) hurts premium positioning — Nordstrom’s $150-190 AOV reflects apparel/home premium, but affluent consumers showing restraint. Even wealthy shoppers trading to Costco for essentials.
Marketing and Brand Teams
- Target Gen X (+15.5%) with bulk value messaging — ages 40-55 with families need household essentials, snacks, cleaning supplies, paper products. Warehouse clubs win this segment with membership benefits and bulk pricing. If you’re not a warehouse club, focus on convenience (Target’s same-day delivery) or experience (Nordstrom’s service).
- Millennials (+5.5%) are household formation buyers — ages 28-43 setting up homes, having kids, stocking pantries. Costco/Sam’s capture this with bulk family packs. Target’s opportunity: smaller urban Millennials who can’t store bulk purchases.
- Under $50K income (+4.8%) needs membership value proposition — warehouse club membership ($60-120/year) pays for itself in savings. Market ROI clearly: “Save $500+ per year on groceries and household goods.”
- Premium positioning (Nordstrom $150-190 AOV) requires experience differentiation — apparel and home goods at premium prices only work with service, curation, and brand assortment. Commodity general merchandise can’t command premium.
- Off-price treasure hunt (TJ Maxx, Marshalls 7-8% share each) holds niche — consumers willing to hunt for deals find value. But share stable, not growing—niche strategy, not mass market.
Investors
- Costco (30-32%) is the defensive play — dominant share, stable growth, membership model creates recurring revenue and loyalty. Warehouse club economics are structural advantage.
- Target’s 22% to 16% collapse signals mid-tier crisis — lost share to both warehouse clubs (value) and off-price (deals). Without clear positioning, Target faces continued pressure. Short or avoid until turnaround signal emerges.
- Gen X momentum (+15.5%) supports warehouse clubs — peak household-buying years with families. Costco/Sam’s positioned perfectly for this demographic. As long as Gen X has homes and kids, warehouse clubs win.
- High-income caution ($150K+ at -3.1%) pressures premium — Nordstrom’s $150-190 AOV depends on affluent spending. If wealthy consumers trade down to Costco even for some purchases, premium retailers compress.
- Millennials (+5.5%) entering prime spending years — household formation and kids drive general merchandise spending. Brands capturing Millennials now win next decade.
Policy Makers
- Warehouse club dominance (55-60% share) raises competition concerns — Costco/Sam’s control over half the market. Pricing power and supplier leverage create potential antitrust issues.
- Target’s struggles reflect middle-class squeeze — $50-75K income negative (-2.1%) while under $50K positive (+4.8%). Middle-income households getting crushed—too wealthy for bulk value focus, not wealthy enough to ignore prices.
- Gen X strength (+15.5%) reflects household essentials spending — peak family years drive bulk purchases. As long as employment holds, general merchandise spending stable.
- High-income pullback ($150K+ at -3.1%) signals discretionary caution — even affluent households trading down. Wealth effect from equities not translating to spending.
Top Brands by Market Share
Leading brands ranked by market share within sector
Trends + Insights
Gen X (+15.5%) is warehouse club nation Ages 40-55 with families driving category. They’re buying bulk paper towels, snacks, cleaning supplies, and household essentials at Costco/Sam’s. Peak household-spending years meet warehouse club value proposition perfectly.
Target lost 6 points of share in 2 months (22% to 16%) December spike to 22% (holiday shopping) crashed to 16% by February and hasn’t recovered. Target’s “affordable premium” positioning squeezed by warehouse club value (Costco/Sam’s) and off-price deals (TJ Maxx, Marshalls). Mid-tier with no clear advantage loses.
Costco/Sam’s 55-60% combined share is unbreakable 30-32% Costco, 25-27% Sam’s Club = warehouse club duopoly. Membership model, bulk pricing, private label quality, and scale advantages create moat. Traditional retailers can’t match price per unit without losing money.
Under $50K income (+4.8%) uses warehouse clubs to stretch budgets Membership fees ($60-120/year) pay for themselves in bulk savings. Lower-income households maximize value per trip. Warehouse clubs are necessity, not luxury, for budget-conscious families.
$50-75K middle-income squeeze (-2.1%) Neither wealthy enough to ignore prices nor focused enough on bulk value. This income bracket getting crushed—housing costs, childcare, and inflation leave little for general merchandise discretionary.
High earners pulling back ($150K+ at -3.1%) Affluent households showing restraint despite equity gains. Even wealthy consumers trading to warehouse clubs for some purchases. Nordstrom’s $150-190 AOV depends on this segment—their pullback pressures premium.
Millennials (+5.5%) in household formation mode Ages 28-43 setting up homes, having kids, stocking pantries. Costco/Sam’s capture bulk family purchases. Target’s opportunity: urban Millennials in apartments who can’t store bulk.
Target’s $45-50 AOV is lowest in category Lower than Sam’s Club ($70-80), far below Costco ($110-130). Target customers cherry-picking deals, not doing full shopping trips. Basket size collapse reflects trip frequency without spending depth.
December (+11.6%) holiday surge defines the year Q4 holiday shopping drives disproportionate revenue. Retailers who execute October-December well capture 40-50% of annual profit. Miss holiday and you chase recovery all year.
Top Brands by AOV
Leading brands ranked by average order value within sector
This macro sector analysis provides detailed insights into economic trends and consumer behavior patterns. The visualizations below are derived from real-world transaction data and economic indicators.
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Sector Spending by Income Bracket
Industry sector spending patterns by household income level
Sector Spending by Generation
Industry sector spending patterns by generational cohort
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