Retail Sales excl. Auto
Total Sector Spending
Overall spending trends across an industry sector
What's the story behind the data?
Retail is alive, but bifurcated. Value players (Walmart, Costco) and digital channels (Amazon at 13.6% of total U.S. spend) are consolidating share. Mid-tier discretionary is getting crushed. Baby Boomers (+11%) are outspending every generation while rapidly adopting digital. Gen X (+0.6%) is tapped out—student loans, housing costs, caregiving. High earners ($125K+) pulled back despite equity gains. The $50K-$75K bracket (+6%) drives the most volume.
April (+8.5%) and August (+5.5%) surged on tax refunds and back-to-school. February (-3%) and May (flat) cratered during tariff uncertainty. December’s +8% reflected holiday strength and pre-tariff stockpiling. This isn’t seasonal noise—it’s consumers front-running policy changes and spending only when necessity or promotional windows force their hand.
Census confirms it: retail ex-auto up 5.0% YoY in August, nonstore +10.1%. Walmart posted 5.3% comps with 22% e-commerce growth, stealing high-income customers with value messaging. Target reported flat comps and clearance pressure. Amazon’s market share keeps expanding. The middle is disappearing—you’re either winning on price and convenience, or you’re losing.
Strategic Takeaways
FP&A / Strategy Teams
- Plan for -3% to +8.5% monthly swings — volatility is structural, not cyclical. Rolling 90-day forecasts beat annual plans. April and August are your revenue months; February and May are not.
- Boomers (+11%) are your surprise winner — everyone chases Gen Z (+4.8%) who can’t afford to buy. Boomers have money, are going digital, and over-index in health, food services, and home. Reallocate marketing spend.
- Gen X (+0.6%) is done spending — peak earning years, lowest growth. If this is your core demo, expect competitors to attack with aggressive value positioning. Defend or concede.
- High earners are cautious despite wealth gains — $125K+ at +1.5-2% signals discretionary pullback. Premium positioning faces headwinds. Walmart’s stealing this segment with “premium at value prices.”
- $50K-$75K (+6%) drives volume — this is your workhorse. Stock depth, promote hard, and own this bracket or lose revenue share.
- Regional divergence demands local strategy — Midwest stable, South/Northeast weak. National campaigns underperform. Build regional P&Ls.
Marketing and Brand Teams
- Gen Z = high frequency, low dollars — +4.8% growth is transaction count, not revenue. Use for brand building, not immediate ROI. Shift budgets to Boomers and $50K-$75K earners who convert.
- April and August = your only windows — tax refunds and back-to-school drive disproportionate revenue. Concentrate media spend here, not Q1 or Q2 shoulder periods.
- Regional strategies or die — Northeast underperforms every month. Midwest holds. Stop running national creative. Localize messaging, offers, and inventory.
- Boomers are going digital fast — +11% includes heavy omnichannel adoption. If your UX is built for 25-year-olds, you’re losing 60+ year-olds with money.
- Value messaging works across income brackets — even high earners are trading down. “Premium quality at accessible prices” beats “luxury” positioning in 2025.
Investors
- Overweight Walmart, Amazon, dollar stores — consolidation accelerates. Walmart gained high-income households, Amazon dominates digital at 13.6% share. Mid-tier (Target) is losing.
- Underweight Gen X and high-earner discretionary — both segments pulled back (+0.6% and +1.5-2%). Apparel, mid-tier furniture, and home décor face persistent pressure.
- Play seasonal momentum — April and August deliver consistent pops. Overweight retail in Q2/Q3, underweight in Q1. Volatility = opportunity if you time it.
- Short premium without differentiation — high earners showing caution means luxury/premium brands without moats get crushed. Walmart’s “premium value” strategy is cannibalizing this segment.
- Credit quality is deteriorating — $50K-$75K driving volume but savings rates falling (5.7% to 4.6% per EY). Consumer credit exposure is a time bomb.
Policy Makers
- Gen X is breaking — +0.6% from peak earners signals systemic stress. Student loans, housing, caregiving. If this cohort collapses, consumer spending follows.
- Northeast needs intervention — persistent weakness across all quarters. Elevated costs and stagnant wages mean this region is falling behind.
- Tariff uncertainty creates demand destruction — February and April swings track policy announcements. Predictability > any specific tariff level. Businesses can’t plan.
- Income bifurcation accelerates — <$75K resilient, >$125K cautious. Wealth concentration is warping consumption. Progressive policy adjustments could rebalance demand.
- Digital access = economic participation — nonstore at +10.1% means consumers without digital access are shut out of retail growth. Infrastructure investment matters.
Top Brands by Market Share
Leading brands ranked by market share within sector
Trends + Insights
Tax-refund slingshot Feb -3% → Apr +8.5% tracks tax refund timing perfectly. Consumers wait for liquidity, then spend. Retailers who inventory deep in March and promote in April capture disproportionate share.
Gen X discretionary fatigue +0.6% from ages 40-55 = retail’s workhorse is exhausted. Student loans resumed, housing unaffordable, caregiving costs rising. Categories over-indexed to Gen X (home décor, mid-tier apparel) face structural headwinds.
Boomer power surge +11% is the story no one’s telling. Equity gains, retirement income, and surprising digital adoption. Health, food services, and home categories benefit. Stop ignoring 60+ consumers—they have money and they’re spending it.
High-income caution, not collapse $125K+ still positive (+1.5-2%) but growing at ⅓ Boomers’ pace. They’re delaying, not canceling. Pent-up demand exists if macro uncertainty clears—or Walmart keeps stealing them with value.
“Donut hole” weakness $75-100K bracket is retail’s traditional core—now the worst performer. Pandemic savings exhausted, credit card balances rising. This segment’s collapse explains why mid-tier retailers (Target) struggle while value (Walmart) and premium (niche luxury) hold.
Digital isn’t optional anymore Nonstore +10.1%, Amazon at 13.6% total share. If you’re not winning digitally, you’re losing. Period. In-store still matters for showrooming and fulfillment, but purchase decisions increasingly happen online.
Top Brands by AOV
Leading brands ranked by average order value within sector
This macro sector analysis provides detailed insights into economic trends and consumer behavior patterns. The visualizations below are derived from real-world transaction data and economic indicators.
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Sector Spending by Income Bracket
Industry sector spending patterns by household income level
Sector Spending by Generation
Industry sector spending patterns by generational cohort
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