Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores
Total Sector Spending
Overall spending trends across an industry sector
What's the story behind the data?
Sporting goods surged late 2025, driven by back-to-school sports and fall activity season. The category was volatile and mostly weak through mid-year: November -2.1%, February -7.4%, July -3.3%. Then August exploded to +9.5% and September hit +13.1%—the strongest months in the entire dataset. This isn’t consumer confidence rebounding—it’s youth sports equipment (football, soccer, fall leagues) and seasonal outdoor activity driving concentrated purchasing windows.
Dick’s Sporting Goods holds 25-30% share (stable), Nike declining from 25% to 15% (brand losing relevance or shifting to DTC), Hobby Lobby surging from 15% to 22% in December (holiday crafts) then settling at 15%, REI stable 10-13% (outdoor niche), Barnes & Noble/Academy Sports each 10-11%. AOV tells the story: REI commands $120-150 (premium outdoor gear), Nike/Dick’s/Adidas mid-tier $90-105, Academy/Hobby Lobby value $60-75, Barnes & Noble lowest $30-40 (books).
Millennials (+18%) dominate the category—ages 28-43 with kids in youth sports buying equipment, uniforms, and league fees. Gen Z (+12.8%) and Gen X (+11.9%) also strong. Boomers weakest at +9.9%. All income brackets positive, but spread modest: $50-75K at +12.9%, $100-125K at +13.4%, high earners $150K+ at +7.5%. Youth sports equipment is non-negotiable for families with kids—you buy what the league requires.
Implications by Audience
FP&A / Strategy Teams
- August-September (+9.5%, +13.1%) are the revenue months — back-to-school sports (football, soccer, fall leagues) and outdoor activity (hunting, camping) create concentrated buying window. Inventory and staffing must accommodate this surge or lose sales.
- Millennials (+18%) drive the category — ages 28-43 with kids in youth sports buying equipment, uniforms, cleats, and league registrations. Parents don’t negotiate—they buy what coaches require. Youth sports equipment is necessity for families.
- Nike declining from 25% to 15% share signals brand issues — losing relevance in sporting goods retail or successfully shifting to DTC (Nike.com, Nike stores). Either way, Dick’s/Academy/REI seeing Nike’s retail presence shrink.
- Hobby Lobby’s December surge (15% to 22%) — holiday crafts drive seasonal spike, then reverts. This volatility shows craft/hobby portion of category is gifting-driven, not year-round activity.
- REI’s $120-150 AOV defends premium outdoor positioning — camping, hiking, climbing gear command pricing power. Outdoor enthusiasts pay for quality and REI’s co-op model creates loyalty. Premium works in this category.
- All income brackets positive (+7.5% to +13.4%) — youth sports equipment is non-discretionary for families with kids in leagues. Parents buy regardless of income. Equipment requirements don’t vary by household budget.
Marketing and Brand Teams
- Target Millennials (+18%) with youth sports messaging — ages 28-43 with kids aged 5-15 in organized sports. Equipment, uniforms, team gear, and league fees are fixed costs. Marketing should emphasize durability, safety, and league compliance.
- August-September are your windows — back-to-school sports and fall outdoor activity drive +9.5% and +13.1% growth. Concentrate promotional spend June-September to capture equipment purchases ahead of season start.
- Gen Z (+12.8%) participates in sports differently — individual fitness (gym, running, cycling) over team sports. Athleisure, home workout equipment, and personal activity drive their spending. Market convenience and style, not league requirements.
- REI’s premium outdoor positioning ($120-150 AOV) justifies pricing — enthusiasts pay for quality gear, expert staff, and co-op benefits. Don’t compete on price—compete on experience and product knowledge.
- Nike’s retail decline (25% to 15%) reflects DTC shift — brand prioritizing Nike.com and Nike stores over wholesale partners. If you’re a retailer, Nike allocation and support declining. Diversify brand mix or risk inventory gaps.
Investors
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (25-30% share) is defensive play — stable share, omnichannel execution, and youth sports focus. Category leader with scale advantages. August-September surge shows seasonal strength.
- Nike’s retail decline (25% to 15%) pressures wholesale partners — Dick’s, Academy, and independent sporting goods stores losing Nike inventory as brand prioritizes DTC. Retailers dependent on Nike face margin pressure.
- REI’s premium outdoor niche ($120-150 AOV) is defensible — co-op model, expert staff, and enthusiast loyalty create moat. Outdoor activity resilient—camping, hiking, climbing don’t require economic boom to sustain.
- Millennial momentum (+18%) supports youth sports spending — peak parenting years with kids in organized sports. As long as youth sports leagues exist, equipment spending is non-discretionary.
- August-September seasonality creates quarterly distortion — Q3 makes or breaks the year for sporting goods. Miss back-to-school season and you chase recovery all year. Time investments around this peak.
Policy Makers
- Youth sports equipment spending resilient across income — all brackets positive (+7.5% to +13.4%). Families prioritize kids’ sports participation regardless of budget. Access to youth sports reflects broader social equity.
- Millennial family spending (+18%) reflects youth sports growth — organized leagues for kids ages 5-15 driving equipment purchases. Youth sports participation rising as indicator of household stability and community engagement.
- Outdoor activity spending (REI 10-13% share) supports recreation access — camping, hiking, climbing equipment sales reflect public land usage. Outdoor recreation infrastructure and access policies impact this sector.
Top Brands by Market Share
Leading brands ranked by market share within sector
Trends + Insights
August-September surge (+9.5%, +13.1%) is back-to-school sports Strongest months in entire dataset. Youth sports equipment (football, soccer, fall leagues) and outdoor activity (hunting, camping) create concentrated buying window. Parents stock up ahead of season start. Miss this window and revenue lost permanently.
Millennials (+18%) drive youth sports equipment Ages 28-43 with kids aged 5-15 in organized sports. Equipment, uniforms, cleats, and league fees are non-negotiable expenses. Parents buy what coaches require—no substitutions, no delays. Youth sports equipment is necessity spending for families.
Nike losing retail share (25% to 15%) Brand declining in sporting goods stores as it prioritizes DTC (Nike.com, Nike stores). Retailers losing Nike allocation and support. Nike betting its brand strength allows cutting out wholesale partners. Risky move—convenience and immediate availability matter in sporting goods.
Hobby Lobby’s holiday craft surge (15% to 22% in December) Craft/hobby portion of category is gifting-driven. Holiday projects, DIY gifts, and decorations spike Q4, then revert. Year-round hobby activity exists but concentrated purchasing around holidays.
REI’s $120-150 AOV proves premium outdoor works Camping, hiking, climbing gear command pricing power. Outdoor enthusiasts pay for quality, durability, and expert advice. REI’s co-op model (members get dividends) creates loyalty beyond price. Premium positioning defensible in this category.
All income brackets positive (+7.5% to +13.4%) Youth sports equipment is economic equalizer. Families with kids in leagues buy regardless of income. Equipment requirements don’t adjust for household budget—everyone pays same price for cleats, gloves, uniforms.
Gen Z (+12.8%) does fitness, not team sports Individual activity (gym, running, cycling, home workouts) over organized leagues. Athleisure, personal equipment, and convenience drive spending. They’re not buying football pads—they’re buying yoga mats and running shoes.
Dick’s 25-30% share is stable dominance Largest sporting goods retailer with scale advantages, omnichannel execution, and youth sports focus. Private label (DSG brand) and exclusive partnerships (Nike, Under Armour) create differentiation. Category leader holding ground.
Barnes & Noble $30-40 AOV lowest in category Books are low-ticket items in this aggregated category. B&N inclusion drags down AOV averages. Physical book retail continues slow decline as e-books and audiobooks grow.
Top Brands by AOV
Leading brands ranked by average order value within sector
This macro sector analysis provides detailed insights into economic trends and consumer behavior patterns. The visualizations below are derived from real-world transaction data and economic indicators.
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Sector Spending by Income Bracket
Industry sector spending patterns by household income level
Sector Spending by Generation
Industry sector spending patterns by generational cohort
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